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Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

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The shift in RBI’s stance came, but not in the repo rate as most people were expecting today.The Monetary Policy Committee ( MPC) decided to change the stance from neutral to “calibrated tightening” of monetary policy, which in plain English means that rate cuts are probably off the table, and RBI can decide on when to raise or not raise rates depending on how fresh data comes in.

Whilst a 0.25% hike in the repo rate was the consensus view of the expected MPC action today, with some even expecting a 0.5% hike, the policy statement surprised markets – bonds positively, equities and the rupee negatively, with RBI choosing to do nothing, as MPC members voted 5:1 in favor of an unchanged repo rate at 6.50%. This was also probably driven by the fact that there have been two consecutive rate hikes in the last two MPC meetings.

They stuck with their primary mandate i.e. controlling inflation, with the objective to achieve medium term target for CPI inflation of 4 percent within the range of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

Since the last MPC meet in August 2018, the Indian basket of crude oil has increased sharply by US$ 13 a barrel, whilst global economic activity has been able to withstand ongoing trade tensions thus far. Food inflation has remained unusually weak, which imparts a downward bias to its trajectory in the second half of the year. The risk to the food inflation from a 9% deficit in the monsoon, is also probably mitigated by higher production of major kharif crops for 2018-19 than last year’s record. An estimate of the impact of an increase in minimum support prices (MSPs) announced in July has been factored in the baseline projections.

The projected inflation in Q2:2018-19 is at 4%, 3.9%-4.5% in the second half and 4.8% in Q1:2019-20 with risks on the upside, which were lower than earlier estimates.

With risks broadly balanced GDP growth projection for 2018-2019 was lowered at 7.4% against 7.5 % in August due to strong base effect.Private consumption has remained strong and is likely to be sustained even as the recent rise in oil prices may have a bearing on disposable incomes. However, both global and domestic financial conditions have tightened, which may dampen investment activity. Rising crude oil prices and other input costs may also drag down investment activity by denting profit margins of corporates. This adverse impact will be alleviated to the extent corporates are able to pass on increases in their input costs. Uncertainty surrounds the outlook for exports. The recent rupee depreciating could be negated by slowing down of global trade and the escalating tariff wars.

Global headwinds in the form of escalating trade tensions, volatile and rising oil prices, and tightening of global financial conditions therefore pose substantial risks to the growth and inflation outlook.

Your Investments

As we see change in stance from neutral to calibrating tightening signals that rate cuts are off the table. Concerns seem to be around crude oil prices, global interest rates and the ongoing global developments on the trade front. Equities continue to trade at a premium and whilst it may be very tempting to buy lumpsums as equities have fallen substantially, equity valuations in India continue to be elevated vis a vis long term averages. A gradual entry strategy or a continued SIP/STP strategy is most suited to the current market scenario. It may be a good idea to add fixed income exposure through a combination of largely ultra short term, short and medium term strategies focused on high credit quality portfolios, to avoid any spillover of the continuing bad loan cycle on your investments.

Your Loans

After hiking the repo rate twice in a row, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key policy rates unchanged. However, the central bank has changed its stance on the key policy rates to ‘calibrated tightening’. This indicates that RBI is of the view that there is upward pressure on interest rates which means your EMIs are likely to continue ti go up. Expect banks to raise rates gradually even though RBI kept rates constant today.

Way forward

The next policy is due on December 5, but don’t be surprised for mid course corrections if the data so warrants. Ultimately that’s what caliberated tightening probably alludes to.

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Listen up professionals and start-up owners!

Every individual has a passion and a dream. Many wish to break free from their mundane work life to pursue their passions. However, it can be difficult to break the shackles of comfort and security that a well paying job offers and venture into unchartered territory that your dream might lead you to. For those who manage to do so, we tip our hats to you and offer these words of advice.

 

Being a business ourselves, we understand the trials and tribulations that a professional or a start-up founder goes through. The fact is that it can take a while before you break even and start drawing an income. Even the revenues generated can be irregular so how do you manage your personal finances and ensure neither your nor your family’s dreams are compromised.

 

  1. Know your expenses– With a job that gives you a fat paycheck your lifestyle expenses are bound to be high. Now with an irregular salary keeping up with the same expenses will get challenging. You and your family should be prepared to adapt to your new financial situation and trim down your expenses wherever possible. It might make sense to set up a SWP (Systematic Withdrawal Plan) that provides the necessary income and help you stick to a budget without going bust.
  2. Keep those SIPS going through the good and the bad days-As the case is with most businesses, the revenues are not steady. There will be times when the business would have done well and the receivables have also come in and then there would be not such great times. With such irregular and unsteady income how do you manage to keep your family’s dreams alive. The Key is to invest the surplus in a liquid fund which will then systematically transfer the money on a regular basis in an equity fund. This will ensure that you keep saving and investing towards your future goals unhindered by the ups and downs of your business.
  3. Insurance, your protection shield– The job of a life insurance policy is to not only provide for your family in case of an unforeseen event, it is supposed to also cover your outstanding loans and the financial goals such as kid’s higher education, comfortable life for your dependents etc. So ensure you have taken a cover large enough to meet your family’s needs. A simple term plan will do the needful.
  4. Health is wealth– With the medical inflation rising at 10-15% annually, the importance of a medical insurance can not be stressed enough. Health is indeed wealth but you don’t want to lose your wealth due to any illness or accidents. You might also want to consider taking an accidental and critical illness policy as a safe guard measure along with a regular medical cover.
  5. Contingency fund- This fund should be large enough to cover your 6-8 months expenses. Since you do not have a regular income, it is optimum to consider expenses over a longer period. You could even consider including your SIPs amounts for those many months, this will ensure your goals are right on track and are not hampered by the volatility in your income.
  6. Keep personal and business expenses separate– This is the most important advice as it is very easy for the business expenses to spill over and be paid for from your family kitty. This is especially possible if you use the same credit card for both personal and business use. This can further stress your family budget over time.

With an irregular income it becomes essential to plan and channelize your money to ensure your family is well secured financially and their goals and dreams have wings. You might want to consult a financial planner to see how to fund your family goals if you choose to launch your start-up.

 

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retirement

India is a saver’s economy. During the working years sacrifices are made for the benefit of the  family and retirement is keenly looked forward to. Advertisements of retirement products paint a picture of a comfortable retirement by the sea and that your life could be one happy vacation. However, in our experience as and when individuals start approaching their retirement they start to dread it. Questions such as are they well prepared for retirement, have they saved enough, and biggest dilemma faced is  where to invest this large sum of money in order to get a regular cash flow to become financially independent. What do you do to actually turn your retirement into one big happy vacation?

Effective cash flow management is the key to a successful retirement. The magic lies in creating a strategy that generates a regular inflation adjusted income for you and your surviving spouse, lasts you a life time and offers liquidity.

Strategy 1: Create a regular income stream

Every individual wants to be financially self sufficient. In the absence of a joint family, being financially independent is not a desire but a must have in your golden years. If you need money for your day to day expenses, then getting a payout once in 3 or 6 months doesn’t help. A lot of retirees rely on dividend income either from stocks or their mutual funds. This is a huge mistake which becomes evident with time when the steady income from salary has stopped completely. Receiving a dividend from your investments when you have a  salary feels great because it provides an additional income. What most people don’t realize is that the dividend is actually paid out at irregular intervals and the amount is also inconsistent. Similarly, the interest payout from your corporate FD might be on a quarterly basis or twice a year and now locked in until maturity.

How to execute this strategy?

To be financially independent at all times you have to ensure you have created multiple income streams and timed the out flow to suit your requirement. If you need to pay salaries and bills towards the start of the month, then set the payout around that time. Opt for monthly interest payout from FDs and set up a Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP) from your Mutual Fund investments on a monthly or bimonthly basis. This way you will know exactly when your next payout will happen and manage your expenses and bill settlements better. You will also be more in control of your finances rather than being helpless because of a bad strategy which can now not be easily changed.

Strategy 2: Generate an inflation adjusted income

Thanks to the increase in programs aimed towards investor education, many individuals understand and are aware of the impact of inflation on their income and wealth. The income that you receive should be able to beat inflation and help you live your life comfortably and on your terms. The current consumer inflation rate is at 4.17% however, it is essential to consider your lifestyle inflation which rises faster than food inflation. It would be wise to adjust your income against an inflation of 7-8%. The income that would have sufficed today will not manage to cover the same expenses next year due to inflation. On a yearly basis, you will notice that your bills are rising, so will the salary of your staff.

How to execute this strategy?

The interest income coming from your Fixed Deposits will not be able to implement this strategy since the returns are fixed and the amount is locked until maturity. You would not have the option to choose a higher payout even at the cost of wealth depletion.

This strategy can only to executed through a Systematic withdrawal Plan (SWP). With an SWP you have the option to increase or decrease the amount that is withdrawn from the investment. For eg. If your cash flow requirement is Rs 25000/month for the 1st year, then with a Systematic withdrawal Plan you have the flexibility to adjust the payout by increasing it to Rs 27000/month which would be inflation adjusted. This way you can increase the payout from your debt funds using SWP strategy.

Strategy 3: Avoid excess liquidity as a part of contingency planning

Most senior citizens seek comfort in keeping large amounts of cash lying in their bank accounts. This they say is for emergencies and contingencies in case they need a lot of cash all of a sudden. Assume you have Rs 50 lakhs for your retirement corpus out of which if  5-10 lakhs are kept in your bank account for comfort then this is a very expensive way to deal with emergencies. With high inflation and increasing life expectancy, one can not afford to keep 10-20% of their wealth idle. At your age you will need every cent and penny to work as hard as it can.

How to manage liquidity?

If you have parked a large sum in your bank account, the reason has  less to do with emergencies and more to do with liquidity. With most of your money parked in illiquid assets like bonds, fixed deposits or real estate how do you get your money if a need arises. Liquid debt mutual funds are a perfect option since they provide both higher returns and offer liquidity. Liquid funds can generate a return of up to 6.5% and are highly liquid as the name suggests. You can redeem your units from a liquid any time and encash your money. You will receive your money in your bank account the next day.

Strategy 4: Plan your cash flow to avoid wealth depletion during your lifetime

With the advancement in medical sciences the average life expectancy in India has risen to be around 85 years. There is also a risk that both you and your spouse might outlive your life expectancy and live longer than what you had accounted for. This poses a threat to your financial independence as there is a possibility of your wealth getting depleted while you both are still alive. It therefore becomes important to invest your money in such a way that your portfolio can provide a steady cash flow not just for you but for your surviving spouse too and a little over your assumed life expectancy.

How to make this strategy work without compromising on your dreams?

As a retired person wealth preservation is of utmost importance however, if inflation and longevity poses a threat to your wealth and goals then you have to go beyond your comfort zone and add more growth assets in your portfolio. However, if there is a gap between the income that your portfolio can generate and your needs, then instead of taking excess equity exposure it is advisable to taper your expenses instead.

An expert financial planner will be able to execute and implement this strategy for you by creating a realistic portfolio which meets your income expectation and risk profile. A combination of debt and equity mutual funds should do the magic.

The secret to a successful retirement is a little bit of planning which can go a long way to turn your retirement into a happy vacation.

 

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Today marked the 3rd Bi-Monthly policy statement by the RBI for the FY 2018-19 with members voting 5-1 in favor of a rate hike.

This was largely in line with market expectations and was already priced in, as post the release of the minutes of the monetary policy bond yields did not move much in either direction.

However, the MPC also continued to maintain a neutral stance, indicating that it is trying to play a delicate balance between inflation and growth, and decisions are being taken with the objective of achieving the medium term target for CPI at 4% within the range of +/- 2% and future data prints

The MPC mentioned that domestically various indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to be strong. Significant turn around in the production of capital goods and consumer durables, Progressive monsoon and increase in MSPs of Kharif crops are expected to boost rural demand by rising farmer’s income. Vehicle sales augur well for urban income growth.

Retail inflation i.e. CPI grew to 5% in June from 4.9% in May, driven by an uptick in inflation in fuel. Food inflation remained muted due to lower than usual seasonal uptick in prices of fruits and vegetables in summer months. Adjusting for the estimated impact of the 7th central pay commission’s house rent allowances (HRA), headline inflation increased from 4.5 per cent in May to 4.6 per cent in June. Low inflation continued in cereals, meat, milk, oil, spices and non-alcoholic beverages, and pulses and sugar prices remained in deflation. Factors mentioned above have resulted marginally downward revision in inflation projections for Q2 vis-à-vis the June statement. However, projections for Q3 onwards remain broadly unchanged on account of uptick of 20 bps in inflation expectation for 3 months and 1 year ahead horizon survey of households by RBI’s. RBI’s industrial outlook survey also reported higher input costs and selling prices in Quarter 1 of 2018-19. Input cost of companies polled in services PMI in June also stayed elevated. Farm and non farm input costs rose significantly in June.

The central government has decided to fix the minimum support prices (MSPs) of at least 150 per cent of the cost of production for all kharif crops for the sowing season of 2018-19. This increase in MSPs for kharif crops, which is much larger than the average increase seen in the past few years, will have a direct impact on food inflation and possible secondary impacts on headline inflation. Uncertainty around the full impact of MSP on inflation will only resolve in the next several months once the price support schemes are implemented and procurement by the government is visible.

Based on an assessment of the above-mentioned factors, inflation is projected at 4.6 per cent in Q2, 4.8 per cent in H2 of 2018-19 and 5.0 per cent in Q1:2019-20, with risks evenly balanced. Excluding the HRA impact, CPI inflation is projected at 4.4 per cent in Q2, 4.7-4.8 per cent in H2 and 5.0 per cent in Q1:2019-20.

The MPC notes that domestic economic activity has continued to sustain momentum and the output gap has virtually closed. However, uncertainty around domestic inflation needs to be carefully monitored in the coming months. In addition, recent global developments raise some concerns. Rising trade protectionism poses a grave risk to near-term and long-term global growth prospects by adversely impacting investment, disrupting global supply chains and hampering productivity. Geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continue to be the other sources of risk to global growth. On account of these risks, RBI governor stated that by keeping the neutral stance, the Monetary Policy Committee have kept the option of further rate increase or decrease open and dependent on future data.

With an election year upon us and possible fiscal risks emanating, along with global outflows on the back of higher US interest rates and a falling rupee, this may not be the last of the rate hikes in our view.

Your Investments

Financial markets have continued to be volatile and driven mainly by monetary policy stances in advanced and emerging economies and geopolitical tensions. Globally, equity markets have been volatile on trade tensions and uncertainty around Brexit negotiations. However, it also important that public finances do not crowd out private sector investment activity at this crucial juncture.

Capital flows to Emerging Economies declined in anticipation of monetary policy tightening in Advanced Economies. Also currency of Emerging economies have depreciated against the US dollar over the last month on account of strong USD supported by strong economic data.

Equities continue to remain overpriced from a price to earnings perspective in spite of recent corrections and a better growth outlook. However, good results so far by many companies, along with good growth expectations and better capacity utilisation bode well for earnings growth going forward.

Real rates continue to remain positive.The rising G-sec yield makes dynamic bonds and long term bond funds unattractive and the exposure to the same should be minimized. Bonds with a shorter duration of 3 months to 2 years are ideal in the given scenario. We therefore, continue to believe that investors should continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of lower duration and short term strategies.

Your Loans

With an increase of 25 basis points by the RBI, the deposit rate of the banks could further increase which would be followed by lending rate hikes. Thus we suggest looking at prepaying or raising EMI amounts on your loans to negate the interest rate hike and future hikes that could follow.

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retirement

It is one of the biggest, if not biggest, money question that often keeps people awake at night. The uncertainty of whether what you have earned and saved is enough for that dreamy retirement life can be quite stressful. And it is this ambiguity that often leads to making incorrect assumptions which, in a vicious cycle, leads to misguided money decisions.

Through this blog, we hope to focus of some items that need to be looked at to better judge just how much preparations you need for your Golden Years.

  1. Goals:

First of all, it is important to accept that your retirement will not mean doing absolutely nothing for the remainder of your life. Chances are you would still be at least partially responsible for your child’s post graduation/ marriage. If not those, then planning for those holidays and long travel plans, or having a dedicated medical corpus or even starting philanthropy or your own consultancy would need financial planning and funds.

There even might be recurring goals to consider such as cars. If you drive a Honda City today, chances are you would want similar car throughout your life. Assuming a Honda City costs Rs 13.75 lakhs as of today, you would need Rs 65.8 lakhs at the start of retirement just to fund purchasing the same car every 5 years (accounting for 7.7% inflation)

 

  1. Your Current Expenses:

While we usually have approximate amounts in our heads, rarely do we know our exact expenses for a year. If you think you may know, even so the detailed expenses are not known. If you do track and compare average expenses of the year versus that of two years ago, you would probably see higher than expected changes. This is due to inflation and lifestyle changes. It is critical to keep tabs on your expenses, as discretionary expenses tend to creep up and inflate your overall expenses.

  1. Changing Expenses during Retirement:

It is common notion that expenses will reduce once you retire. But data and experience shows otherwise. For example: Travelling and Medical costs tend rise whilst dependent cost tend to go down and groceries tend to remain the same.

Also, how expenses change depend on the stage retirement you are at. Early on during retirement sees uptick in expenses due to higher travel and entertainment costs. Then they slowly start coming down in the intermittent phase of retirement. Towards your super senior years, they tend to same constant.

  1. Medical Costs:

As per Willis Tower Watson Global Medical Trends Survey Report 2018, medical inflation in India is currently at 11.3% p.a. In other words, the cost of the same surgery will double every 6.5 years! Your retirement needs to plan for this.

  1. Lifestyle Expenses:

Urban inflation is around 7.7% p.a. on an average in the past 20 years. But that does not account for everything. We aspire for better things during our retirement. For example, you would have a Sony Home Theatre System which would cost approximately Rs 35,000. But aspirations would strive for a Bose System which is closer to Rs 90,000. That is a 181% jump! It is crucial to have both sets of inflation accounted for during retirement.

  1. Life Expectancy:

An incorrect assumption of life expectancy can have significant consequence. Data shows the life expectancy of Indians is closer towards 70 years and above. Furthermore, it is a fact that women have higher life expectancy than men. So planning for your spouse’s life expectancy is something which is not given adequate thought.

Life expectancy in developed countries are much higher. And as India steadily progresses to that status, it can be reasonably assumed that our life expectancy will only increase.

These are just some items, amongst others, that need to be carefully looked at to ensure you are planning for a good enough retirement corpus and are financially well placed to live your retirement years in peace.

To provide an even deeper understanding, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors is conducting a seminar on Planning for Retirement on the 7th of July 2018.

For a complimentary invite do write in to us or leave us a comment to this blog.

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Today marked the second and much awaited Bi-Monthly policy statement by the RBI for the new FY 2018-19.

In line with what bond markets expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a 6-0 verdict on an interest rate hike by 0.25%. The was largely in line with market expectations post the release of the minutes of the last meeting and thus the bond market had only a marginal impact of this change.

However, the MPC also continued to maintain a neutral stance, indicating that it is trying to play a delicate balance between inflation and growth, and decisions are being taken basis news flow and fresh data coming in.

The MPC noted that domestic economic activity has exhibited a sustained revival in recent quarters and the output gap has almost closed. Investment activity, in particular, is recovering well and could receive a further boost from swift resolution of distressed sectors of the economy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. This is in general good news for the economy.

Retail inflation i.e. CPI grew to 4.6% in April. The decision to raise rates is therefore in line with the objective of keeping the medium term inflation at 4% i.e. well within the 2-6% range.

Since the MPC’s meeting in early April, the price of Indian basket of crude surged from US$ 66 a barrel to US$ 74. This, along with an increase in other global commodity prices and recent global financial market developments, has resulted in a firming up of input cost pressure thus persisting in a high CPI inflation projection for 2018-19. On the other hand the summer momentum in vegetable prices was weaker than the usual pattern softening the food inflation in the short term, though this has been more than negated by the changes in oil prices. Household inflation expectations have also moved up sharply and  pricing power seems to be on its way up as well.

Taking these effects into account, the projected CPI inflation for 2018-19 is revised to 4.8-4.9 per cent in H1 and 4.7 per cent in H2, including the HRA impact. Excluding the impact of HRA revisions, CPI inflation is projected at 4.6 per cent in H1 and 4.7 per cent in H2.

Crude oil prices have been volatile recently and since consumption, both rural and urban, remains healthy and is expected to strengthen further, all this imparts considerable uncertainty to the inflation outlook, possibly on the upside. With an election year upon us and possible fiscal risks emanating, along with global outflows on the back of higher US interest rates and a falling rupee, this may not be the last of the rate hikes in our view.

Your Investments

Geo-political risks, global financial market volatility and the threat of trade protectionism pose headwinds to the domestic recovery. However, it also important that public finances do not crowd out private sector investment activity at this crucial juncture.

In most Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), bond yields have risen on reduced foreign appetite for their debt due to growing dollar shortage in the global market and on prospects of higher interest rates in Advanced Economies.

Equities continue to remain overpriced from a price to earnings perspective in spite of recent corrections and a better growth outlook. However, signs of improved demand and pricing power for companies, along with good growth expectations and better capacity utilisation,  bode well for earnings growth going forward. Corrections into equities could therefore be bought into.

Real rates continue to remain positive.The rising G-sec yield makes dynamic bonds and long term bond funds unattractive and the exposure to the same should be minimized. Bonds with a shorter duration of 3 months to 2 years are ideal in the given scenario. We therefore, continue to believe that investors should continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of lower duration and short term strategies.

Your Loans

Even before the RBI meet, the banks had begun hiking both their lending and borrowing rates. This rise in lending rates was brought about by the rapid increase in bond yields and increased loan demand, especially in private banks.

With an increase of 25 basis points by the RBI, the deposit rate of the banks could further increase which would be followed by lending rate hikes. Thus look at prepaying your loans with excess liquidity.

A 6-0 verdict is therefore a clear indicator that inflation targeting continues to be the MPCs primary role, and a conservative stance will probably give foreign investors a more positive view on India.

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Your money matters – Simple steps to take charge of your money matters

1In today’s world, women are equal to men in most ways. Women have achieved high accolades and are doing very well in modern Indian, sometimes even better than their male counterparts!

However, when it comes to financial planning for their family, most times they take the back seat, leaving the details for the husband to handle. Financial planners are unanimous in saying that when it comes to making investment decisions, women rarely take an initiative. A study commissioned by DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd and conducted by global research agency Nielsen across 14 cities in India in July 2013, found that only 23% of working women make their own investment decisions.The reason often is that the complexity of products and the mathematics involved in financial planning makes it seem puzzling.

However, women should take control of their finances. Here’s what the empowered women should do when it comes to financial planning for herself and her family.

Create Self Awareness and Get Involved:The first step would be to involve oneself and start discussing these aspects actively with family. Women face different changes in life which affects their finances – be it marriage, child birth, divorce or death of spouse. If you are a single mother, the financial responsibility of raising a child needs to be planned. If you are just married, understanding the outlook of the spouse and jointly planning the future finances should be a top priority. Therefore, it is important to increase the financial awareness when all is well and to be prepared for adversities. Things to do:

  • Read articles / blogs / personal finance books
  • Discussing and take active interest along with spouse
  • Take the help of a financial planner or advisor
  • Attending personal finance sessions

Take advantage of various incentives provided for women:Both the private and public sector institutions provide financial incentives for women, most of which go under the radar. (1) Banks offer customized savings accounts with cash backs and rewards for women who spend using bank’s debit card on shopping, food, etc. Some banks also offer discounts on medical tests required by women like thyroid tests, etc. To save for their kid’s education, mothers can open a ‘Junior/Kid Account’ with the waiver of monthly account balance requirement if it is linked to a Recurring Deposit (RD) Account or a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP). (2) While buying an insurance policy, women receive a benefit on the premium paid as compared to their male counterparts. Traditionally, women pay less premium than men for the same sum insured when it comes to buying a life insurance policy. (3) Many banks offer lower interest rates on home loans if a woman is applying for it or if she is the first applicant for a joint loan. The same goes for car loans too. (4) Some state governments provide certain exemptions with respect to stamp duty and transfer duty in case of sale deeds, conveyance deeds and gift deeds if the property is in the name of a woman.

  • Learn and know the available benefits available for women when buying products / availing loans

Cover Risk and Contingency:All the planning you do could be ruined in case of any emergency. Therefore, contingency planning comes before any investment planning. Such contingencies could be risk to life, health, hospitalisation or any unforseen emergency which may require her to step in financially. If you are a working couple or a single earning member family with a loan, having adequate life insurance ensures that dependants will not have to compromise on their finances in the income earner’s In regards to health, various medical research reports say that women live longer and may have more health issues compared to men. Therefore the need for health cover for women.

  • Have a contingency fund for your family
  • Understand and create enough life cover and health coverfor spouse and you

 Plan for Retirement/ Sabbaticals: For you, retirement can either mean retiring at the end of your working age, usually 60; or when you have children and decide to not work anymore. Various studies show that as women usually live much longer than men, therefore they may outlive their spouses. So, in order to have a secure retirement, it is essential to plan for it well in advance. Factors such as inflation, lifestyle, providing for dependants need to be synced together efficiently.

  • Understand the funds that you may need in retirement (with spouse and without spouse) and invest towards it
  • In case of sabbatical / pause in work, understand the income loss you may face from such a decision and work towards providing a buffer for it

 Investing: While women are known to be great savers, saving in itself becomes futile if savings are not deployed to grow. Women need to get involved in such aspects and contribute actively. Working women should also understand these nuances rather than letting the husband or father decide about her money and investments.

  • Involve yourself in investment decisions, slowly and steadily, to grow confidence and understanding of the subject

 Legacy Planning:– In case of wills, the voice for women to register their own wills is growing louder. Now, more than ever, women have assets in their names which if left without proper will/nominations, can inadvertently end up in the hands of a person for whom the asset was not envisaged. Women may also inherit their parents’ assets. Even in the case of the husband’s will, the wife needs to be informed of the existence and details of such a w Dealing with the loss of a loved one is challenging but can become easy if there is awareness and the lady of the family is prepared and informed.

  • Understand and be part of the will making process

 

From the above, you would have gathered how important it is for women to get started on money awareness. Getting women to manage money requires a mindset shift and the above steps, we hope, will give you some pointers on how to start managing your money matters. After all it is your money and it matters.

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RBI has been proven right on its past decisions on interest rates, and in line with consensus views post the Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6 percent and 5.75 percent,respectively. The MPC also decided to keep the policy stance as neutral, and indicated that further rate hikes or rate cuts will depend on incoming data. It does seem like a long pause on interest rates is in store. The MPC voted 5-1 in favour of status quo, with one member expressing a preference for a rate hike.

Since these were in line with market expectations, both bond and equity markets had already priced in this scenario, and thus they did not react much to this announcement.

The CPI projections for inflation going forward were higher than projected in the last policy, with inflation expected to continue to be elevated at 5.1%p.a in Q4, and 5.1% -5.6% p.a, in H1 2018, due to pressure from higher commodity prices, oil and possible impacts of MSP hikes and increased customs duties, along with greater pricing power for companies to pass on these costs to end consumers.

Growth for 2017-18 is projected at 6.6% ( lower than 6.7% expected earlier) , and projected for 2018-19  at 7.2 %  overall. This recovery is expected on the back of better bank credit growth, an increase in capacity utilisation, GST stabilisation and bank recapitalisation.

Governor Patel ascribed the recent sharp rise in bond yields to various global and domestic factors; including higher US rates, oil prices, increase in inflation, cyclical pick- up in demand in the economy as well as fiscal slippages from the government.

 

Your Investments

With the RBI referring to a recovery in the economy, it does seem that whilst they will continue to track data closely, strategies that are focused on interest rates staying elevated should be the preferred choice.  Considering that real rates of return (returns from fixed return investments less inflation) continue to be significantly positive, we continue to believe that investing in fixed income is attractive, as equities continue to trade at significant premiums to long term price to earnings ratios in spite of the recent correction.  It may be a good idea to continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of largely accrual, short to medium term, and hold to maturity strategies. Considering the bank recapitalisation, investors could also consider credit opportunities funds for a small portion of their portfolios. For investors willing to continue to look at interest rates having periods of downward volatility, dynamic bond funds that have the flexibility to move across bond maturities, can be explored for 10% – 15% of the fixed income portfolio.

 

Your Loans

Whilst RBI’s decision to hold rate cuts could indicate status quo on rates, we think that the rapid increase in bond yields and its negative impact on bank balance sheets could create upward pressure on loan rates, with banks possibly raising rates going forward.

Reserve Bank introduced the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rates (MCLR) system with effect from April 1, 2016. With the introduction of the MCLR system, it was expected that the existing Base Rate loans shall also migrate to MCLR system. It is observed, however, that a large proportion of bank loans continue to be linked to the Base Rate. Since MCLR has proven to be a better tool to transmit interest rates, RBI has decided to harmonize the methodology of determining benchmark rates by linking the Base Rate to the MCLR with effect from April 1, 2018. This is likely to help borrowers who are still on base rate linked loans.  An ombudsman scheme to improve customer grievance handling for loans taken from NBFCs has also been introduced.

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This 7th of December is the International Civil Aviation Day and marks the 50th Anniversary of the signing of the Convention on International Civil Aviation.The purpose of this day, as pilots all over might be well aware of, is to recognize the importance of aviation to the overall development of the world.

And while pilots draw great confidence from being able to manage the process of reaching passengers to their destinations safely and comfortably, a more pressing question can be that are they confident when it comes to management of their finances?

The profession of a pilot demands almost all their time all year round. Hence they are left with limited personal time which they wish to live to the fullest. And like most busy professionals,more often than not money management seems to come at the end of this wish list. Pilots go through meticulous preparation and planning for their flights daily but sometimes are unable to do so for their finances.

While money is not the end, it is definitely a means to achieve certain objectives. Proper planning and structure to a pilot’s personal finances can result in he/she being prepared for all kinds of life events and responsibilities. Events such as:

  1. Sudden Illness:The requirement for pilots to be medically fit is of prime importance as they are responsible for the lives of hundreds of passengers daily. Every pilot needs to ensure a good health cover to cover sudden illness and hospitalisation. A pilot may wonder why would he need insurance when he is already covered. But if one actually things about, it might be prudent to have a separate health insurance cover for times when you may not be employed or between jobs or in cases where employer insurance is inadequate.
  2. Need for upgradation of Skill Sets:Like all professions, skill updation is a critical requirement that must be met by all pilots on periodic basis. But these do not come at a cheap cost. Ensuring enough provision and funds are kept aside and is available at the time of requirement can go a long way in avoiding last minute stress.
  3. Contingency Needs: A major issue plaguing the aviation industry is the availability of opportunities. The last few years have clearly demonstrated that problems are plenty in the Indian aviation sectors. For eg. Airlines have closed down, pay cuts are becoming common, or there have been significant delays in salary payments. Such events can have huge financial implications on pilots and their families. Having contingency funds parked in highly liquid assets can help bring some normalcy in such difficult times.
  4. Retirement and Sunset Years:Insufficient planning for your golden years i.e. Retirement can cause stress. In case of pilots, who are among the top earners amongst professionals, this only magnifies the problem. Why so? Pilots more often than not tend to have busy lifestyles with high discretionary expenses. As such they are accustomed to a lifestyle that will only get more and more expensive as years pass This year on year rise in prices is called Inflation and it is an important factor that more often that not, is grossly underestimated. Furthermore, like any other busy professional, even pilots like to keep themselves occupied during retirement years. The interests or activities that they might pursue would also usually have financial implications. Activities such as investing into various ventures, pursuing hobbies or dream goals, continuing leisure flying by enrolling in the local flying club can be just some of the examples. To be able to fund these without affecting retirement corpus requires careful planning early on.

Take the case of pilot Mr. Sharma. Currently aged 30, the household expenses for him and his family is Rs. 12 lakhs per annum. Even if we assume a general inflation of 8%, the same Rs. 12 lakh will become Rs. 1.75 crores at the age of retirement at 65. ( Rules permit pilots to fly till the age of 65 ). In other words, Mr. Sharma would need to have a big enough corpus at retirement that will provide them atleast Rs 1.75 crores every year that will help them maintain current lifestyles.

Pilots are aware of the importance of planning. Each flight requires hours of pre flight preparation which means going through weather reports, system checks among other items to ensure that the flight goes by without any hitch. Similarly having a strategic plan in place for one’s finances can also help prepare for any “rough weather” that could come along in a pilot’s financial life.

 

 

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India is currently among the most watched Emerging Market nations. To top that, the Indian Equity Markets have witnessed unprecedented growth in the recent months. The YTD returns for Sensex alone has been 26% (data from BSE India). The euphoria and high confidence on the Indian Equities has continued to remain, especially from the institutional investors both foreign and domestic.

This is also leading to make many individual investors question whether they should invest in equities or sit on the sidelines. While individual risk appetite and time horizon would be some of the basic factors to understand before investing, there are many other fundamental factors to track. While the debate has been raging on as to which indicators should be looked at or ignored to make sense of the valuations of the Indian equity markets, the following factors can help bring some sense of clarity to the overall picture. Factors such as:

Current Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Numbers): One of the most traditional tools used globally at gauging the valuations of an equity market of a country. In the last one year alone (based on data from Oct 16 to Oct 17), the P/E Ratio for S&P BSE Sensex has averaged close to 22 times in comparison to its historical average of approximately 17 on a trailing basis. For the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap of the same period, the P/E valuations are at an average of 33.8 and 81.13 times.

Corporate Earnings: P/E Ratios are directly linked to the corporate earnings of the country. As per Kotak Institutional Equities Estimates, the Expected Earnings for companies representing the Nifty 50 Index are approximately 2% in FY 2018. A variety of reasons are attributed to these low earnings expectations, most famously discussed are the implementations and effects of Demonetization and Goods and Service Tax (GST).

Crude Oil Prices: Nearly 80% of India’s energy needs are import dependent. A direct consequence of this is the risk to the country’s inflation rate if the prices of crude oil are to rise. A rise in oil prices results in lower cashflows/profits for companies and higher prices for consumers. Brent crude oil prices are currently firming up at prices upwards of 60$ per barrel. This is a definite concern from an Indian economy perspective.

Exchange Rates: The Rupee is currently considered overvalued basis its 10 year average (Source: Kotak Research). This has a dual impact on the economy i.e. (A) it increases attractiveness of imported products, resulting in increased competition for domestic companies and lower profits; (B) it decreases the value of exported products and therefore hurts the margins of export based industries such as the IT sector. Both have resulted in muted growth prospects for these respective industries.

Bond Yields: In an growing economy like India, both equities and bonds compete for capital. In a equity bull rally, money is taken out from bond markets and pumped into equities, forgoing risk to capital for riskier investments. Currently bond yields are inching up to the mid 2017 high of 6.987% yield for the 10yr G-Sec. However there has only been net inflows into fixed income. Foreign Portfolio Investments into Government Securities have already reached 83.94% of their allotted limit (data dated as per 6th Nov NSDL)

Inflation Rate: Inflation brings about it own risks to the stock markets. In the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the RBI revised the inflation projections for the rest of FY 2018 upwards to 4% – 4.5%. This may indicate a stop to future rate cuts, freezing any possibilities of reduction in lending rates. Medium term consequences for companies could possibly mean dearer than expected debt to  service, resulting in subdued profits and revenue.

Role of FIIs: The way that Foreign Institutional Investors park monies in the market can give an indication to the current picture of that market. While FIIs were very bullish on Indian Equities for most part of the calendar year, starting June they slowly but surely tapered inflows in equity, finally resulting in net outflows in the month of September and October. (Source: moneycontrol)

Global Scenario: On a global scale, economies are starting to look up, with further growth expected. According to IMF Economic Outlook, average expected GDP growth for FY 2017 is 2.5%. Globally, equity markets have participated in this growth including India. What probably may need to be put in perspective is that the rally in Indian Equities may be partly due to the global rallies taking place. Therefore the Indian equities are associated with risks in terms of foreign external factors like outbreak of war in the Korean Peninsula. Such events are likely to have negative impacts on the domestic markets.

Keeping in mind the above mentioned factors, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors has a definite view that current equity markets are over valued and investors should exercise caution. The not so positive indicators from these mentioned factors should mean a significant correction cannot be discounted, keeping us wary of diving too much into equities without first educating investors of the potential risks in the short to medium term horizon.

 

 

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