“Caliberated Tightening” – RBI’s new stance

The shift in RBI’s stance came, but not in the repo rate as most people were expecting today.The Monetary Policy Committee ( MPC) decided to change the stance from neutral to “calibrated tightening” of monetary policy, which in plain English means that rate cuts are probably off the table, and RBI can decide on when to raise or not raise rates depending on how fresh data comes in.

Whilst a 0.25% hike in the repo rate was the consensus view of the expected MPC action today, with some even expecting a 0.5% hike, the policy statement surprised markets – bonds positively, equities and the rupee negatively, with RBI choosing to do nothing, as MPC members voted 5:1 in favor of an unchanged repo rate at 6.50%. This was also probably driven by the fact that there have been two consecutive rate hikes in the last two MPC meetings.

They stuck with their primary mandate i.e. controlling inflation, with the objective to achieve medium term target for CPI inflation of 4 percent within the range of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

Since the last MPC meet in August 2018, the Indian basket of crude oil has increased sharply by US$ 13 a barrel, whilst global economic activity has been able to withstand ongoing trade tensions thus far. Food inflation has remained unusually weak, which imparts a downward bias to its trajectory in the second half of the year. The risk to the food inflation from a 9% deficit in the monsoon, is also probably mitigated by higher production of major kharif crops for 2018-19 than last year’s record. An estimate of the impact of an increase in minimum support prices (MSPs) announced in July has been factored in the baseline projections.

The projected inflation in Q2:2018-19 is at 4%, 3.9%-4.5% in the second half and 4.8% in Q1:2019-20 with risks on the upside, which were lower than earlier estimates.

With risks broadly balanced GDP growth projection for 2018-2019 was lowered at 7.4% against 7.5 % in August due to strong base effect.Private consumption has remained strong and is likely to be sustained even as the recent rise in oil prices may have a bearing on disposable incomes. However, both global and domestic financial conditions have tightened, which may dampen investment activity. Rising crude oil prices and other input costs may also drag down investment activity by denting profit margins of corporates. This adverse impact will be alleviated to the extent corporates are able to pass on increases in their input costs. Uncertainty surrounds the outlook for exports. The recent rupee depreciating could be negated by slowing down of global trade and the escalating tariff wars.

Global headwinds in the form of escalating trade tensions, volatile and rising oil prices, and tightening of global financial conditions therefore pose substantial risks to the growth and inflation outlook.

Your Investments

As we see change in stance from neutral to calibrating tightening signals that rate cuts are off the table. Concerns seem to be around crude oil prices, global interest rates and the ongoing global developments on the trade front. Equities continue to trade at a premium and whilst it may be very tempting to buy lumpsums as equities have fallen substantially, equity valuations in India continue to be elevated vis a vis long term averages. A gradual entry strategy or a continued SIP/STP strategy is most suited to the current market scenario. It may be a good idea to add fixed income exposure through a combination of largely ultra short term, short and medium term strategies focused on high credit quality portfolios, to avoid any spillover of the continuing bad loan cycle on your investments.

Your Loans

After hiking the repo rate twice in a row, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key policy rates unchanged. However, the central bank has changed its stance on the key policy rates to ‘calibrated tightening’. This indicates that RBI is of the view that there is upward pressure on interest rates which means your EMIs are likely to continue ti go up. Expect banks to raise rates gradually even though RBI kept rates constant today.

Way forward

The next policy is due on December 5, but don’t be surprised for mid course corrections if the data so warrants. Ultimately that’s what caliberated tightening probably alludes to.

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IMPACT OF FALLING RUPEE ON YOUR FINANCIAL PLANNING AND INVESTMENTS

Often when the exchange rates cross a threshold, the stock markets get jittery and turn volatile. In the last year or so, the rupee has depreciated over 10 percent against the US dollar. Weakening of the rupee can be attributed to the following factors – increase in crude oil prices, rising US yields , US stand on tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, slowdown of foreign inflows into India.

Negatives of a weak rupee

Depreciating rupee increases the cost of imports. India being a large importer of crude oil, a weak rupee adversely affects inflation. A high inflation rate contributes to an increase in the household expenses. This means lesser savings which has an effect on your overall personal finances. As inflation and interest rates move in the same direction, consistent high inflation rates could lead to an increase in interest rates making loans expensive. A depreciating rupee also has a negative impact on any expenses to be made overseas such as foreign education and travel.

Benefits of a weak rupee

A weak rupee would benefit NRIs making remittances into India and also benefits redemption of foreign currency denominated investments. However, it can have a mixed effect on equity investors depending on how exposed or diversified their portfolio is.

Investors of mutual funds having exposure to foreign stocks benefit when the rupee depreciates. International funds have two ways of generating returns – performance of the underlying stocks and currency movement. In recent times, such investments have gained from the rupee’s depreciation.

Incase of a well-diversified long-term portfolio rupee depreciation would not have too much of an impact. However, individual stocks would see volatility if they are in the export or import business, or are financing them.

 

Impact on your investments and budget

The recent, sharp decline in the rupee will impact not just your planned vacation abroad or studies in a foreign country, but also your investments and budget. Find out how to counter its debilitating effects.

A – Monthly budget

THE IMPACT: Imported commodities like fuel or medicines, or products that depend on imported inputs for their manufacturing will become expensive. These can include FMCG products like soaps and detergents, which use crude oil as the base, as well as cars and electronic goods, which depend on components from abroad.

YOUR STRATEGY: Rationalise your spending by slashing discretionary spends like those on entertainment and travel, and it may help cushion the hike in prices of essential items.

 

B – Salary

 

THE IMPACT: The rupee’s fall may also result in shrinking pay cheques for some especially in industries that are dependent on imports since it results in an increase in production and operation costs. To keep their margins intact these companies could cut costs one of which is human resources. Hence doling out lower increments and a freeze on hiring may be an option.

 

YOUR STRATEGY: IF your skill sets are aligned only to the sector you are in, a job switch may lead to an above-average hike.

 

C – Investments

 

1. EQUITY INVESTMENTS

 

THE IMPACT

– It may result in an FII exodus, both from equity and debt markets.

– It could raise inflation and the RBI may raise rates which further hurts business input costs.

– A depreciation of Rs 1 against the USD increases oil under-recoveries by Rs 9,000 crore. This is a negative for oil marketing companies(OMCs) and worsens the fiscal deficit.

– While the exporters benefit, import businesses suffer.

– The companies with foreign debt may find it difficult to service it.

 

YOUR STRATEGY

– Stay with defensive sectors like IT, pharma and FMCG for now.

– Since the RBI is not expected to cut rates soon, avoid high-beta, rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and infrastructure for now.

– Since the rupee depreciation will compound asset quality issues, it is better to concentrate on private-sector banks or some PSU banks with high asset quality.

-The government may not allow OMCs to pass on the additional import costs before elections, so avoid these till there is clarity.

– The companies with high foreign debt are in a precarious situation, so steer clear of these for the time being.

– To diversify impact invest in equities via mutual funds as single stock exposures could drag your portfolio

 

2. DEBT INVESTMENTS

 

THE IMPACT

– Bond yields expected to remain under pressure at the longer end.

– There is a chance that RBI may keep or hike repo rates so interest rate hardening is expected.

– The FII outflow from the debt market due to depreciation fears can raise yields; the 10-year yield has already gone up in the past few days making long term debt volatile.

 

YOUR STRATEGY

-Since the interest rates are expected to be volatile, it would be prudent to stay in short term debt papers and accrual/hold to maturity investments.

– Credit risk strategies would be an aggressive bet given the current scenario

– Do not resort to a knee-jerk strategy shift.

 

3. GOLD

 

THE IMPACT

– Dollar appreciation brings down the international gold price. Currently, it is below $1,200/ ounce, a 34-month low.

– However, the rupee depreciation cushions a part of the global crash.

– Gold accounts for a big part of the current account deficit, so the government may take further measures to stem its import, cushioning the domestic price.

 

YOUR STRATEGY

– Investors with only a small strategic exposure to gold can continue to hold on to it.

– Those with a high exposure to the yellow metal should use any rally as an opportunity to book profit.

 

4. REAL ESTATE

 

THE IMPACT

INTEREST RATE: The biggest casualty of rupee volatility is the expected rate increase by the RBI. This may reduce the demand and holding power of builders. So, it’s a negative as far as the real estate prices are concerned.

 

NRI: These are the major consumers of Indian real estate and rupee depreciation makes it more affordable for them. This may raise realty demand.

 

INFLATION: Since the material costs go up, along with the inflation, it may put an upward pressure on real estate prices as well.
YOUR STRATEGY: Real estate is already overvalued and, therefore, it makes sense to book profit on your investments (other than your primary residence).

 

CONCLUSION

Assuming there is a decline in the prices of oil and other commodities, the Indian investors might still not benefit as the rupee depreciation could negate the price reduction. The depreciating rupee could pressurise the domestic inflation situation. As India is an import intensive country, the domestic costs will rise on account of rupee depreciation mainly due to fuel prices and its spiralling effects.

Exchange rates definitely have an impact on our lives and they cannot be ignored. Most people may say that it does not affect me, but as can be seen from the blog above, it surely does. If you can note the above impacts and trends and understand the strategies suggested, you would be better prepared to face the effects of a falling rupee on your personal finances.

 

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