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Posts Tagged ‘#VishalDhawan’

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Today marked the second and much awaited Bi-Monthly policy statement by the RBI for the new FY 2018-19.

In line with what bond markets expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a 6-0 verdict on an interest rate hike by 0.25%. The was largely in line with market expectations post the release of the minutes of the last meeting and thus the bond market had only a marginal impact of this change.

However, the MPC also continued to maintain a neutral stance, indicating that it is trying to play a delicate balance between inflation and growth, and decisions are being taken basis news flow and fresh data coming in.

The MPC noted that domestic economic activity has exhibited a sustained revival in recent quarters and the output gap has almost closed. Investment activity, in particular, is recovering well and could receive a further boost from swift resolution of distressed sectors of the economy under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. This is in general good news for the economy.

Retail inflation i.e. CPI grew to 4.6% in April. The decision to raise rates is therefore in line with the objective of keeping the medium term inflation at 4% i.e. well within the 2-6% range.

Since the MPC’s meeting in early April, the price of Indian basket of crude surged from US$ 66 a barrel to US$ 74. This, along with an increase in other global commodity prices and recent global financial market developments, has resulted in a firming up of input cost pressure thus persisting in a high CPI inflation projection for 2018-19. On the other hand the summer momentum in vegetable prices was weaker than the usual pattern softening the food inflation in the short term, though this has been more than negated by the changes in oil prices. Household inflation expectations have also moved up sharply and  pricing power seems to be on its way up as well.

Taking these effects into account, the projected CPI inflation for 2018-19 is revised to 4.8-4.9 per cent in H1 and 4.7 per cent in H2, including the HRA impact. Excluding the impact of HRA revisions, CPI inflation is projected at 4.6 per cent in H1 and 4.7 per cent in H2.

Crude oil prices have been volatile recently and since consumption, both rural and urban, remains healthy and is expected to strengthen further, all this imparts considerable uncertainty to the inflation outlook, possibly on the upside. With an election year upon us and possible fiscal risks emanating, along with global outflows on the back of higher US interest rates and a falling rupee, this may not be the last of the rate hikes in our view.

Your Investments

Geo-political risks, global financial market volatility and the threat of trade protectionism pose headwinds to the domestic recovery. However, it also important that public finances do not crowd out private sector investment activity at this crucial juncture.

In most Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), bond yields have risen on reduced foreign appetite for their debt due to growing dollar shortage in the global market and on prospects of higher interest rates in Advanced Economies.

Equities continue to remain overpriced from a price to earnings perspective in spite of recent corrections and a better growth outlook. However, signs of improved demand and pricing power for companies, along with good growth expectations and better capacity utilisation,  bode well for earnings growth going forward. Corrections into equities could therefore be bought into.

Real rates continue to remain positive.The rising G-sec yield makes dynamic bonds and long term bond funds unattractive and the exposure to the same should be minimized. Bonds with a shorter duration of 3 months to 2 years are ideal in the given scenario. We therefore, continue to believe that investors should continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of lower duration and short term strategies.

Your Loans

Even before the RBI meet, the banks had begun hiking both their lending and borrowing rates. This rise in lending rates was brought about by the rapid increase in bond yields and increased loan demand, especially in private banks.

With an increase of 25 basis points by the RBI, the deposit rate of the banks could further increase which would be followed by lending rate hikes. Thus look at prepaying your loans with excess liquidity.

A 6-0 verdict is therefore a clear indicator that inflation targeting continues to be the MPCs primary role, and a conservative stance will probably give foreign investors a more positive view on India.

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HR Post 1 (2)Consultancy is the new age choice of profession. And being a consultant is right there amongst the top dream jobs!

One of the most upcoming fields in this professional niche is in the sector of Human Resources. Consultants in this sphere are referred to as Human Resource Business Partners.

A Human Resource Business Partner goes beyond the regular functions of the organization’s HR team. As such, HR Business Partners generally tend to be very busy as they handle important head hunting and hiring mandates. With bigger mandates and responsibilities comes a much nicer pay package alas with no time to look at personal finances!

But like all professionals, Personal Financial Planning should infact be at the top of the priority list. Why you ask? Let’s delve into the reasons.

Time Restraint: Like all consultants are occupied 24/7, a HR Business Partner is always vying for personal time. And when they do find some, the last thing on their mind is personal financial matters. In the catch up for personal things to get done, personal finances are a low priority. Yet should it not be the complete opposite of this? The importance of financial planning is not just related to finding out how much to invest and where. Financial planning and giving a structure to overall finances is aimed to attain peace in the thought that despite all other commitments, you are working towards insuring that financially your dreams and aspirations will be taken care of. And that is a great source of calm for a person constantly on the move.

Contract based Income: As a consultant, you are a contractual worker in essence. In other words, you are in receipt of the handsome income only as long as you manage to keep the contracts alive. Shouldn’t simple logic dictate your actions that this hard earned should be channelized for situations when no contract is available? Or in layman’s terms, creating a Contingency Fund for those truly lull periods in the industry. Wouldn’t you want to make this hard earned money work as hard as you so that your dreams of an early retirement or that fancy foreign holiday come true?

Insurance: While you may have already thought of the regular health and life insurance policies, what is worth considering are additional risk covers in terms of Personal Accident and Critical Illness Policies. These provide features which help augment income in case you cannot report in to work due to major accidents. In addition insurance that is worth considering for senior HR Business partners or top executives of HR Consulting firms is the Keyman Insurance Policies. (More on all these in the subsequent posts.)

What is it that you truly fancy doing with your hard earned monies that you worked so relentlessly for? Would it not be nice to know that your efforts can be enough to fulfil your life dreams? Most likely your answer would be a resounding YES! So then, what is stopping you? Mere inertia? An inherent fear of doing something wrong that can’t be taken back? Lack of knowledge on how to go forward? The questions are many.

And yet, the solution might be as simple as the professional choice that you have made for yourself. Why not consult an expert consultant from the financial advisory field? It is after all why you are hired right? So why the hesistance in doing the same thing for your personal benefit.

As fellow consultants and advisors we believe, like you, that specialization leads to credibility and expertise. And like consultants, we understand that trust is only gained through repeatedly providing sound and quality advice. Being credible and trustworthy is essential, more so in matters of personal finance.

Having a word with a Financial Advisor to make certain your hard earned wealth is doing the right thing may be a good idea and most certainly worth your coveted personal time.

Till then…continue the good job of quality consulting!

 

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