Issue Detail:
Issue Open: Mar 8, 2017 – Mar 10, 2017
Issue Type: Book Built Issue IPO
Issue Size: 62,393,631 Equity Shares of Rs 10 aggregating up to Rs 1,865.57 Cr
Face Value: Rs 10 Per Equity Share
Issue Price: Rs. 295 – Rs. 299 Per Equity Share
Market Lot: 50 Shares
Minimum Order Quantity: 50 Shares
Listing At: BSE, NSE
D’mart (Avenues Supermarket), which is in the retail business with 118 stores, selling products such as food and groceries (55 per cent of revenues), home and personal care products (20 per cent of revenues) and general merchandise, such as crockery, furniture, garments, footwear, and home appliances (25 per cent of revenues), has clearly come at a time where the global view on equities has turned positive, and volatility in equities is at record lows. IPOs like Snapchat in the US have created significant short term gains for investors, and Indian investors are seeking a repeat. The fact that D’mart is associated with Radhakrishan Damani, believed to be one of the sharpest long term investors in India, has only added to the frenzy. The penetration and development of retail businesses in India have been a much discussed opportunity over the last decade, and the shift from unorganised to organised, and from offline to online, continue to be much talked about.
Whilst there is no doubt that this shift has begun and is only likely to increase significantly going forward, as individuals and families gain more and more comfort with these formats and decide which one works best for themselves, one needs to keep in mind that margins in most retail businesses tend to be very slim, and thus investors will need to be very patient with these businesses, as they scale and maintain/try to grow margins simultaneously, in spite of significant competition. Customer loyalty across these formats will also be tested , as consumers do tend to be very price sensitive in most retail segments.
Whilst revenue and earnings growth for the business have been very decent at 35 – 40% CAGR over the last few years, and the profit margins and other numbers are better than competition, with further scope to possibly expand through the use of private labels, one will need to remember that businesses of this type will create wealth for investors if they are truly thinking very long term. At a P/E of 36 times, even though cheaper than other players in the retail space, and with a model that is very efficient with use of capital, real estate and its supply chain, this IPO is not cheap.
With expectations of significant listing gains pushing investors to try to get a share of the pie, and the issue size being only about Rs 1870 crores, most investors in the retail segment are not likely to get any shares at all, or even if they do, the net impact on their portfolio is likely to be minimal due to the small holding that they will get. For high net worth investors taking leveraged positions, a very high over subscription rate could essentially mean that their interest costs are also likely to be very significant.
With an uncertain global environment on the back of a possible US rate hike coming up, this issue is appropriate only for investors with a high risk appetite, or investors taking a very long term view of their portfolio in our view.
Just like Retail is all about detail, stock investing is all about earnings so keep your eyes focussed there and see how retail businesses continue to grow their earnings going forward, and deal with significant competition pressures.
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