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Posts Tagged ‘Cash flow’

In today’s volatile environment which largely stems from economic uncertainties from global markets, be it the Yuan devaluation some time back or Brazil being downgraded to junk or the September Fed meet on which everyone had an eye which resulted in no rate hike at the moment. The thing which most investors lose focus on is something that is called as long term investment perspective. By investing for the long term one will not try to time the market. Nobody can. We all know the simple rule of investment – buy at low and sell at high but invariably we tend to do it the other way round.

While focusing on short term we tend to buy stocks which have all the positive news around it and little do we realize the half of the time that news has already been priced in. If we focus on the short term our investments are bound to react to events in the short term both positive and negative. Whereas if we focus on the long term the returns will be impacted less by volatility and more by the performance of the investment instrument.

As per tax laws holding stocks beyond one year is categorized as long term but when it comes to investment an investment horizon of 3 – 4 years or more can be considered as long term. On the other hand when it comes to real estate it is far beyond that. Gold is another asset class but again it depends in which form it is held, whether in physical form as ornaments or in the form of ETFs.

Historical data also shows SENSEX had jumped 250% from April 1991 to March 1992 on the back of Harshad Mehta scam. He took crores of rupees from the banking system and pumped it in the market. The scam came to light when the State Bank of India reported a shortfall in government securities. That led to an investigation which later showed that Mehta had manipulated around Rs 3,500 crore in the system. On August 6, 1992, after the scam was exposed, the markets crashed by 72 percent leading to one of the biggest fall and a bearish phase that lasted for two years.

Similarly, from April 1999 to March 2000 SENSEX rallied 35% on the back of improving macroeconomic scenario – improved GDP numbers from growth in manufacturing, infrastructure and construction sector, falling inflation, healthy forex reserves and good industrial production numbers as against the year before and also the technology bubble was engulfing the rest of the world.

Again SENSEX fell 27% in March 2001 when the Ketan Parekh scam took place. A chartered accountant by training, Parekh came from a family of brokers, which helped him create a trading ring of his own. Be it investment firms, mostly controlled by promoters of listed companies, overseas corporate bodies or cooperative banks, all were ready to hand the money to Parekh, which he used to rig up stock prices by making his interest apparent.

Again in Feb 2008 SENSEX corrected by 8% approx on the day Reliance power Ltd. got listed. It closed 17% below its cost. Sensex witnessed a fall of approx 36% from 2008 to 2009 on the back of US Subprime crisis.

Following that there was a sharp pull back in equities between March 2009 to November 2010 led by global (Quantitative Easing announcement by US) and domestic (general elections) news flow. Putting all the pieces together the message to take away is that events will keep on happening but if one keeps a long term investment horizon it will be a safer bet.

The two main factors to consider before taking an investment decision for one self are ability and willingness. It is very important to know the difference between the two. Willingness is more about the attitude towards risk irrespective of the financial ability to do so. Ability on the other hand is financial capacity to bear the risk. It depends on income of the individual, his savings and expense pattern. It depends on the amount of money which one can keep aside purely for investment and not dip into it time and again for personal needs and can hold on to it even if they are not doing good at a particular point in time.

But again the point to note here is that if a particular investment is consistently a poor performer, one should plan an exit from the same and reinvest it in another suitable option. If one is not very good at deciding which stock to invest in and what the best time to do so is, then there are professionally managed mutual funds with different investment objectives from which one can choose.

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A very good graph showing 10 steps to start investing  by UTI Mutual Fund house.

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Asset Allocation should also include global stocks and mutual funds as a diversification strategy is always better. Its always good to get the best of all global markets.

Break your home bias-page-001

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For the past few months, there has been a debate on whether starups set up by teams in their twenties are more likely to succeed than those set up by teams in their 40s and 50s . While youth does stand for innovation as shown by Carwale, Ola, age also stands for wisdom as is evident from IBM, GE, Nestle and Ryanair. Just like myths exist around start-ups,there are many such myths surrounding personal finance too. This article was written by Vishal for the Indian Express five years ago. Whilst the blackberry mentioned in this article is probably dated, the myths around personal finances are still as relevant.. Please do comment if you have heard any other things that could be myths around personal finance in your view, please let us know and we would love to share our thoughts.image-0001

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Returning Indians

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Indian Equity markets once again touched all time highs by crossing the 28500 level on the BSE SENSEX due to various reasons like structural reforms made by strong government, weak commodity and oil prices, inflation easing further, improvement in macros and continued foreign flows on the back of strong  liquidity conditions overseas

Equities:  The CNX Nifty and CNX Midcap increased by approx. 6% in the last one month. The local market sentiment has remained buoyant through the last few quarters as the market anticipates a strong domestic recovery and lower interest rates in an improving policy environment. Various macro factors like GDP growth, Current Account Deficit (CAD), Fiscal deficit (FD), IIP, WPI and CPI are showing an encouraging trend in FY 2014-15, compared to last year FY 2013.

Featured imageSource:  Citi Research, HDFC MF, Colored rows refer to yearly data; other represent quarterly data

Corporate margins are currently at cyclical lows, and though earnings are still to significantly pick up and may take a few more quarters, better managed companies are starting to show some traction. As corporate margins normalize from depressed levels and as interest rates move lower, current P/Es that look expensive could start to look much more justifiable.

However, it is critical to have a long term horizon for investors buying into equities as always, as there could be volatility in the short term, especially with a consensus positive view on India. A consensus positive view tends to be a good contrarian indicator very often, so having a long term view and holding some cash to buy on corrections could be a good idea.

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While the U.S. continues to normalize its monetary policies, the same does not apply elsewhere. To overcome weakness in Europe, China and Japan, the respective central banks are taking steps towards more monetary easing to stimulate growth in their economies.

Emerging Markets like India and China have adopted a more flexible exchange rate system, increased Foreign Exchange reserves and managed their external debt in an efficient way thus far.

Featured imageSource: MSCI, Credit Suisse, I/B/E/S, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management “Guide to the Markets – Asia.”

Investors should remain disciplined in maintaining a well-diversified portfolio by investing across domestic and international equities. A global economic recovery should favour equities, especially emerging markets like India and China that are likely to benefit from a global recovery.  Both emerging markets and developed markets should benefit as a result.

Over the long term, the INR should continue to depreciate vs. the USD at nearly the rate of inflation differential between India and US (last 30 years CAGR of INR depreciation vs USD is 5.5 %; inflation differential between India and US is 4.8%). Therefore, we continue to recommend building international exposure in the portfolio for the purpose of diversification and act as a hedge against currency risk.

Fixed Income: While the equity market is on a high, there are good investment opportunities that we foresee in the fixed income market. There are various factors that impact inflation and the table below shows that they are moderating:

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Investors should start looking at bonds and bond funds (a combination of short, medium and long term options would be recommended, depending upon investment objectives and risk appetite) as a means of hedging their future reinvestment risks.

Globally the gap between US &Indian interest rates is currently high, yet, a sharper than expected reversal in US interest rates could lead to volatility / challenges for the Indian fixed income markets as well. Foreign portfolio flows into debt have also been at a high for many months now, as can be seen from the graph below, and thus investors need to be cautious about any reversal in fund flows. Thus maintaining a long term view on fixed income investments (18-36 months) wouldalso be crucial.

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CPI inflation eased to a series-low 5.5% in October 2014 from 6.5% in September 2014 in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms.  This primarily reflected a sharp decline in food inflation to 5.8% in October 2014 from 7.6% in September 2014, even as core inflation was unchanged at 5.9%.

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Source: CSLO, ICRA Research

However, RBI may not cut the rates in the upcoming monetary policy in December unless they are very sure of achieving CPI inflation target of 6% by January’2016. In addition, it may want to reward investors with continued positive real returns of between 1%-1.5% p.a. over and above inflation, which should help monies move from physical assets like real estate and gold to fixed income instruments as well.

Gold: Gold may continue to see downward pressure globally, with weak commodity prices, and less fear amongst global investors. The government has removed gold import restrictions in spite of the fact that gold imports went up significantly in the last festive month to $3.75 billion. Hence, allocating only a small portion of your investments into this asset class continues to be a good strategy in our view.

We came across a very interesting table recently showing the returns on CAGR basis and the risk measured by standard deviation over 1, 3 and 5 years holding periods of the BSE SENSEX, 1 year SBI Fixed deposit (FD) and Gold in INR terms for the last 30 years:

Featured imageSource: Bloomberg, HDFC MF

As you can see from the above data that:

FDs vs Gold: Fixed deposit returns are very close to the Gold returns in the last 30 years; however the volatility or risk in gold is much higher compared to the risk in FD. Hence, Gold is not a superior option compared to FDs to invest in from a risk perspective.

Equities vs Gold:  Long term returns on equities are much higher than returns on gold (appreciation in Sensex was 5x of gold*). Volatility of equity returns is high but to a lesser extent (3x over 3 year holding periods and 2x over 5 year holding periods). Equities are therefore a superior asset class compared to gold for long term investments and for those with tolerance to volatility.

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