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Archive for the ‘returns’ Category

According to Investopedia, “Geographical Diversification” is the practice of diversifying an investment portfolio across different geographic regions so as to reduce the overall risk and improve returns on the portfolio.

As with diversification in general, geographical diversification is based on the premise that financial markets in different parts of the world may not be highly correlated with one another. For example, if the US and European stock markets are declining because their economies are in a recession, an investor may choose to allocate part of his portfolio to emerging economies with higher growth rates such as China, Brazil and India.

There are two major advantages in diversifying one’s investment portfolio based on geography:

  • Taking Advantage of Opportunities in other Strong Economies:

A significant benefit to a geographic diversification of assets has to do with the way it allows you to mitigate risk by taking advantage of stable economies elsewhere in the world. It’s no secret that some economies are struggling to recover from the trying economic times of the last few years. Other countries, however, have seen higher growth rates due to a variety of factors. International portfolios have been shown, in general, to outperform domestic ones, this is because when there are so many markets to choose from, it is unlikely that the same country will ever repeatedly achieve the highest level of growth. With improved access to international markets and investment instruments such as mutual funds bringing down the costs, an additional option to further diversify has been to buy in international markets.

Picture1

(Source: Bloomberg, Kotak MF. As of 31st Jan, 2018)

The above returns data chart clearly shows that while the Indian Equity Markets have performed significantly in the last year, there were opportunities elsewhere which proved even better. Diversification into such economies can therefore result in better yielding portfolios.

  • Balancing out the risks:

While chasing better returns might definitely be one aspect of any investment portfolio, it is also crucial to understand how any strategy helps in mitigating the associated risks that are part of every investment decision. Geographic diversification provides a much needed balance that all investors strive for. If one of your assets is located in a part of the world that is or could be vulnerable, the investments in other geographies could compensate or buffer any unexpected losses. This is because despite the impact of globalisation, geographies and economies can still have limited correlation between them, and over time international markets could perform very differently to domestic markets. Following is a chart that shows how various sectors form part of some regions around the world, in % of total market capitalization:

Picture2

(Source: credit suisse global investment returns yearbook 2015)

As you may notice, different regions give different weightages to every sector. Thus by accessing these regions, you can in essence, reduce investment risks in individual sectors and therefore your entire portfolio as a whole.

Since the cycles that drive business and investment are experienced at different times in different countries, foreign markets seldom move in perfect tandem with each other. Losses in one market may be offset by gains in another. Geographical diversification significantly reduces the overall level of volatility and exposure to external factors. For an investor, theoretically this would mean that the more diversified your assets, the safer is your money. However it is true that a significant black swan event, such as the financial crisis of 2008, will likely deplete any such benefits, especially in the short term immediately after such an event. What is rather important to keep in perspective is (a) your investment horizon and (b) your risk taking capability to diversify into foreign markets.

 

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Long Term tax gain tax

One of the biggest items that came out from the recent Budget has been the reintroduction of Long Term Capital Gain (LTCG) tax. This tax is applicable on gains arising from sale of  :

  • Equity Shares in a listed company on a recognized stock exchange
  • Units of Equity Oriented Mutual Funds; and
  • Units of a Business Trust

The proposed tax is applicable to above assets if:

  • They are held for a minimum of 12 months from date of acquisition
  • The Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is paid at the time of transfer. However, in the case of equity shares acquired after 1.10.2004, STT is required to be paid even at the time of acquisition

(As per Notice by Ministry of Finance, dated 4th February, 2018)

There are two major points in regards to the proposed regime:

  1. The LTCG tax will be at a flat 10% for any long term gains in excess of Rs 1 lakhs, starting from Financial Year 2018-19 i.e. 1stApril, 2018. In other words, all long term capital gains realized up until 31st March, 2018 will be exempt from the proposed tax.
  2. There is a “Grand Fathering” clause, which in essence ensures that all notional/realized long term capital gains up to 31stJan 2018 will remain exempted from the proposed tax. This means that effectively the closing price of 31st Jan 2018 would be the cost price for LTCG calculations.

How would the Long Term Capital Gains Tax be calculated?

If you sell after 31.3.2018 the LTCG will be taxed as follows:

The cost of acquisition of the share or unit bought before Feb 1, 2018, will be the higher of :
a) the actual cost of acquisition of the asset
b) The lower of : (i) The fair market value of this asset(highest price of share on stock exchange on 31.1.2018 or when share was last traded. NAV of unit in case of a mutual fund unit) and (ii) The sale value received

Scenarios for computation of Long Term Capital Gain

  • Scenario 1:An equity share has been purchased on 1st Jan, 2017 at Rs. 100. Its Fair Market Value (FMV) as on 31st Jan 2018 was Rs 200 and it was sold on 1st April 2018 at Rs. 250.

As actual cost of acquisition is less than FMV, the FMV will be considered as cost of acquisition and therefore the LTCG will be Rs. 50 (Rs. 250 – Rs. 200)

scenario 1

  • Scenario 2:An equity share has been purchased on 1st Jan, 2017 at Rs. 100. Its Fair Market Value (FMV) as on 31st Jan 2018 was Rs 200 and it was sold on 1st April 2018 at Rs. 150.

Actual cost of acquisition is less than FMV. However the sale value is also less than FMV. Therefore the sale value will be considered as cost of acquisition and therefore the LTCG will be NIL (Rs. 150 – Rs. 150)

scenario 2

  • Scenario 3:An equity share has been purchased on 1st Jan, 2017 at Rs. 100. Its Fair Market Value (FMV) as on 31st Jan 2018 was Rs 50 and it was sold on 1st April 2018 at Rs. 150.

As actual cost of acquisition is more than FMV, the actual cost of acquisition will be considered as cost of acquisition and therefore the LTCG will be Rs. 50 (Rs. 150 – Rs. 100)

scenario 3

  • Scenario 4:An equity share has been purchased on 1st Jan, 2017 at Rs. 100. Its Fair Market Value (FMV) as on 31st Jan 2018 was Rs 200 and it was sold on 1st April 2018 at Rs.50.

Actual cost of acquisition is less than FMV. As sale value is less than both the FMV and actual cost of acquisition, the actual cost of acquisition will be considered as cost of acquisition and therefore there will be Long Term Capital Loss of Rs. 50 (Rs.50 – Rs. 100). Long-term capital loss arising from transfer made on or after 1st April, 2018 will be allowed to be set-off and carried forward in accordance with existing provisions of the IT Act.

scenario 4

Note, there is no clause of indexation on cost of acquisition. Setting off cost of transfer or improvement of the share/unit will also not be allowed.

 

LTCG on these instruments realized after 31.3.2018 by an individual will remain tax exempt up to Rs 1 lakh per annum i.e. the new LTCG tax of 10% would be levied only on LTCG of an individual exceeding Rs 1 lakh in one fiscal. For example, if your LTCG is Rs 1,30,000 in FY2018-19, then only Rs 30,000 will face the new LTCG tax.

What should you do now with your Equity Portfolio?

Even with the reinstatement of this tax, we believe that equities are still an efficient post tax investment avenue. We would therefore continue to recommend to remain invested in equities provided the investment horizon is long. Alternatively, if you require monies in the short term, this may be a sound window to book profits and shift to less aggressive avenues.

 

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SIP Plant

Mutual Funds have surely caught the fancy of the Indian Investor community with net flows crossing one lakh crores in 2017! Unlike in the past years, almost everyone we speak with has probably heard of mutual funds. The strong rise in awareness of this investment vehicle has even prompted the Association of Mutual Funds India (AMFI) to cash in on it, with their recent on going advertisement campaign, “Mutual Funds Sahi Hai”.

But what caused this sudden optimism and acceptance of mutual funds as an investment option? It clearly is not a “new trendy option”, for mutual funds have been around for over two decades. While a lot of its features and advantages may contribute to its overall success, one key factor that really has drawn the Indian investor to mutual funds is its ability to create long term wealth, not only for those who invest big lump sums in it, but more decisively, for the salaried class.

The most commonly availed route to invest in mutual funds for the a salaried investor has been Systematic Investment Plan (SIP). It has become synonymous with mutual fund investing. So how does an SIP work? And how does it help in long term wealth creation?

A SIP is simply an investment process to invest systematically every week or month or quarter into a mutual fund scheme at a periodic chosen date. The intent behind this process is that by investing small amounts over a medium or long term tenure, you are sidestepping the issue of market timing. Market timing being the decision to invest based on your view of market movement. As investments will be done over a period of time, such installments would get both the highs and lows of the underlying market, thereby averaging out the purchase cost. This concept is called Rupee Cost Averaging. But for the salaried class a SIP has been looked as a convenient method of investing, as investing monthly from the salary income is a easily achievable goal.

And what about the question of wealth creation? How can a SIP help with wealth creation?

A SIP is a great example of the Compounding Effect, referred to as the Eight Wonder of the World by Albert Einstein. Compounding, or Compound Interest, is the phenomenon where alongside the principal, the interest earned is also reinvested at the same rate of return. So if in Year 1 the principal invested was Rs, 10,000 at 10% rate of interest, the interest to be received at the end of the year would be Rs, 1000. Now because of compounding, the interest is added to the principal in the second year, making principal amount to Rs 11,000 on which 10% returns are gained, resulting in Rs 1,100 as interest in second year and so on so forth. This interest reinvestment is crucial because with passage of time, the increase in principal results in disproportional returns during the latter periods of the investment tenure.

The following table shows how certain equity mutual funds have grown a modest SIP amount of Rs 10,000 per month in the past 10 years:

Fund Name 10 year CAGR (rolling returns) Total SIP Amount Market Value
A diversified equity fund 24.72% Rs. 12 lakhs  Rs. 51 lakhs
A large cap fund 22.98% Rs. 12 lakhs  Rs 45 lakhs
A flexi cap fund 22.96% Rs. 12 lakhs  Rs 45 lakhs
A large cap fund 18.96% Rs. 12 lakhs  Rs 35 lakhs

(Source: Value Express as on 30th Sept 2017) (Note: All fund data taken for regular plans with growth option)

The following chart shows the value of the investment accelerate due to compounding over time.

compounding effects in SIP

(Note: Fund data used is of Diversified Equity Fund from the above table)

Another factor to consider when thinking of compounding is time. The longer you invest and hold the investment, the better results it will provide. The following table is a clear example of the same. Taking the same funds as in the above table, if an investor started late and had to invest for the second half i.e. 5 years and even if he invested at double the SIP amount i.e. Rs 20,000 per month, he/she would not achieve the same end result:

Fund Name 5 year CAGR (rolling returns) Total SIP Amount Market Value
A diversified equity fund 19.36% Rs. 12 lakhs Rs 36 lakhs
A large cap fund 16.07% Rs. 12 lakhs Rs 29 lakhs
A flexi cap fund 19.05% Rs. 12 lakhs Rs 35 lakhs
A large cap fund 18.92% Rs. 12 lakhs Rs 35 lakhs

(Source: Value Express as on 30th Sept 2017)

(Note: All fund data taken for regular plans with growth option)

As you may have noticed, barring the last large cap equity fund, all other funds performed significantly better over 10 year tenures, resulting in higher gains, even though in both cases the principal invested was the same.

As an investor you may have noticed various advertisements where mutual Funds are showcasing how much an SIP into their best performing star fund may have grown into, in a certain number of years. While the growth story in many such funds has been substantial, the key note all investors must keep in mind is that this is the result of staying invested into the fund for the long haul, including the times when the fund may have under performed. Compounding and a SIP will only go hand in hand when the investor has the horizon and patience to continue the SIP for a long tenure.

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Inflation concerns mean rates stay as is…

As was broadly expected, The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday left the policy repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. Out of six members, five members voted for no rate cut and one member voted for 25 bps rate cut. RBI continued to maintain its view that the 4% target on inflation remains its focus. Retail inflation measured by year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI) had recorded a seven-month high in October, and with an indicated range of 4.3% to 4.7% for the next two quarters, along with higher inflationary expectations getting built in through the possibility of higher oil prices and some possible fiscal pressure, this was very much in line with expectations. Surplus liquidity in the system has also continued to decline, reducing chances of rate cuts going forward.

Focus on the real rate of return

With the RBI referring to possible green shoots on growth starting to appear in the economy, it does seem that whilst they will continue to track data closely, strategies that are focussed on interest rates getting reduced are likely to face pressure. However, considering that real rates of return (returns from fixed income investments less inflation) continue to be significantly positive, we continue to believe that investing in fixed income is attractive.

Your Investments

Considering positive real interest rates, and equities continuing to trade at significant premiums to long term price to earnings ratios,  it may be a good idea to continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of largely accrual, short to medium term, and hold to maturity strategies. For investors willing to continue to look at interest rates heading downwards, dynamic bond funds that have flexibility to move across bond maturities, can be explored for a small portion of the fixed income portfolio.

Your Loans

The RBI’s decision to hold rate cuts could indicate that there is unlikely to be any impact on existing lending rates, especially home and car loans by banks. Whilst the transmission of the rate cuts for bank loans over the last couple of years has only been partial, we believe that interest rates may not head down much more going forward.

Way Forward

Considering that the next policy meeting on Feb 6 and 7 is likely to be post the Union Budget, one will need to track how the government manages its fiscal policy and its focus on growth going forward. Global interest rates headed upwards, will also continue to drive RBI’s decisions on interest rates.

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