“Caliberated Tightening” – RBI’s new stance

The shift in RBI’s stance came, but not in the repo rate as most people were expecting today.The Monetary Policy Committee ( MPC) decided to change the stance from neutral to “calibrated tightening” of monetary policy, which in plain English means that rate cuts are probably off the table, and RBI can decide on when to raise or not raise rates depending on how fresh data comes in.

Whilst a 0.25% hike in the repo rate was the consensus view of the expected MPC action today, with some even expecting a 0.5% hike, the policy statement surprised markets – bonds positively, equities and the rupee negatively, with RBI choosing to do nothing, as MPC members voted 5:1 in favor of an unchanged repo rate at 6.50%. This was also probably driven by the fact that there have been two consecutive rate hikes in the last two MPC meetings.

They stuck with their primary mandate i.e. controlling inflation, with the objective to achieve medium term target for CPI inflation of 4 percent within the range of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

Since the last MPC meet in August 2018, the Indian basket of crude oil has increased sharply by US$ 13 a barrel, whilst global economic activity has been able to withstand ongoing trade tensions thus far. Food inflation has remained unusually weak, which imparts a downward bias to its trajectory in the second half of the year. The risk to the food inflation from a 9% deficit in the monsoon, is also probably mitigated by higher production of major kharif crops for 2018-19 than last year’s record. An estimate of the impact of an increase in minimum support prices (MSPs) announced in July has been factored in the baseline projections.

The projected inflation in Q2:2018-19 is at 4%, 3.9%-4.5% in the second half and 4.8% in Q1:2019-20 with risks on the upside, which were lower than earlier estimates.

With risks broadly balanced GDP growth projection for 2018-2019 was lowered at 7.4% against 7.5 % in August due to strong base effect.Private consumption has remained strong and is likely to be sustained even as the recent rise in oil prices may have a bearing on disposable incomes. However, both global and domestic financial conditions have tightened, which may dampen investment activity. Rising crude oil prices and other input costs may also drag down investment activity by denting profit margins of corporates. This adverse impact will be alleviated to the extent corporates are able to pass on increases in their input costs. Uncertainty surrounds the outlook for exports. The recent rupee depreciating could be negated by slowing down of global trade and the escalating tariff wars.

Global headwinds in the form of escalating trade tensions, volatile and rising oil prices, and tightening of global financial conditions therefore pose substantial risks to the growth and inflation outlook.

Your Investments

As we see change in stance from neutral to calibrating tightening signals that rate cuts are off the table. Concerns seem to be around crude oil prices, global interest rates and the ongoing global developments on the trade front. Equities continue to trade at a premium and whilst it may be very tempting to buy lumpsums as equities have fallen substantially, equity valuations in India continue to be elevated vis a vis long term averages. A gradual entry strategy or a continued SIP/STP strategy is most suited to the current market scenario. It may be a good idea to add fixed income exposure through a combination of largely ultra short term, short and medium term strategies focused on high credit quality portfolios, to avoid any spillover of the continuing bad loan cycle on your investments.

Your Loans

After hiking the repo rate twice in a row, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key policy rates unchanged. However, the central bank has changed its stance on the key policy rates to ‘calibrated tightening’. This indicates that RBI is of the view that there is upward pressure on interest rates which means your EMIs are likely to continue ti go up. Expect banks to raise rates gradually even though RBI kept rates constant today.

Way forward

The next policy is due on December 5, but don’t be surprised for mid course corrections if the data so warrants. Ultimately that’s what caliberated tightening probably alludes to.

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Navigating volatile markets – Are you armed with a personal financial plan?

 

As the media and dailies flash all the news and noise around the downgrade of debt securities of some of the IL&FS group companies and the ‘so called blood bath’ on the dalal street triggered by the sale of certain DHFL bonds, the average investor is obviously concerned about their investments. Spooked by these recent events and the volatility of both equity and debt markets investors are now wondering whether to continue their SIPs in mutual funds, buy stocks or just exit and hold cash? So what should you do?

There is no one size fits all solution to this problem. The answer lies in your long and short term objectives and whether you have a detailed drawn out financial plan. Situations like these (market volatility and uncertainty) truly highlight the need of a good weapon – your financial plan- your investment road map. When investors invest without a goal and financial plan in sight they do not know how much to invest, how long they should continue their investments and how close they are to their goals; thus how much volatility their portfolio can withstand.

 

Should you turn conservative?

Let’s assume that you have been been saving for the last 8 years for your child’s higher education and you have about 3 years left until you need the money. Now irrespective of whether the market is volatile or not, it is imperative that you re-balance your portfolio by moving your money in to conservative debt investments. This strategy should anyways have been a part of the financial plan to protect the corpus from short term market fluctuations and should be used only when you start approaching your goal.

If applied sooner than needed then you may run into the risk of falling short of the target amount. Also remember, getting closer to your goal is not the time to get speculative and increase your aggressive equity exposure.

 

How to deal with the amygdala hijack (the emotions and the panic)?

Turning conservative in tough market conditions is easy, staying focused on your goals and continuing your investments as you see the market giants come crashing down requires a lot of courage, focus and some science, data and rationale. Investors are believed to be irrational when it comes to dealing with money. When the markets are rallying investors want to be a part of it and they willingly invest. However as soon as they experience turbulence they drop their investments like hot potatoes in fact hurting their investments and networth. Market fluctuations affects a part of your brain called amygdala which induces fear. The fear leads to panic and the sell off frenzy begins.

At this point you have to go back to your financial plan and remind yourself what your goals are and follow your financial plan to avoid any knee jerk reaction. If your next milestone is 8-10 years away then the current volatility does not need you to act and also your portfolio can withstand this short term fluctuations.

 

How following your financial plan helps?

Staying on track with your financial plan and road map pays off in more than one way. Once you know your milestones and risk appetite through your plan:

• You avoid taking unnecessary exits thereby saving unnecessary capital gain tax or any exit loads that may be applicable that could further reduce your profits.Money saved is money earned.
• You stay invested (example SIPs) through a down cycle of the market , which actually helps you get a better value for your money invested. This over the long term can improve your portfolio returns and catapult corpus generation.
• You may even get opportunities to start newer investments in good quality companies basis your risk profile and time horizon

An example to detail this : Sep 2008 is a period set in time; this is when the infamous Lehman brother crisis shook the global financial markets and sent the indices in India and across the world in a massive tailspin. It was a difficult time for investors, however the ones who persevered and continued their Sips reaped the benefits later.

Lets assume you had a plan and understood the corpus that you needed say in 2018 and started a simple SIP in a mutual fund. The chart below shows the trajectory of such an SIP of Rs 10,000 started in Oct 2008 in 3 different categories of funds.

	SIP amount	Total Amount invested in 10 yrs	Current Value (Rs.)	CAGR
Value Fund	10,000	12 lakhs	34.18 lakhs	18.26%
Multi Cap Fund	10,000	12 lakhs	28.80 lakhs	15.53%
Large Cap Fund	10,000	12 lakhs	28.43 lakhs	15.33%
Nifty 100	10,000	12 lakhs	25.98 lakhs	13.86%

 

Remember, in volatile times, people lose more money by fearing and holding back their investments and possibly denying themselves good opportunities that may present themselves in the form of a market downturn.

Markets will fluctuate and will be volatile, that is their inherent quality. Navigating these carefully is necessary for investors. A sound financial plan and the guidance of an independent and unbiased financial planner would help. In short, you need to stay on track and to follow your financial plan. This financial plan will be your guide and navigator during volatile markets.

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How to retire early like Jack Ma?

The Indian story is pretty simple and straight forward, as you grow you are told to study hard to find a good job. When you finally find that good job you work harder day in and day out trying to keep up with work pressure and your expenses. Then comes in Jack Ma announcing that he plans to retire early and says “I would rather die on a beach than in my office”. This one line is enough to reignite the dreams and fantasies to retire early and move to a quaint town away from the hustle and bustle of the big city. If this is your dream then read on to find out how you can retire early.

Rome was not built in a day and Jack Ma didn’t become a billionaire overnight. While you don’t have to wait to become a billionaire to retire early, you will need to save and create a substantial corpus to be able to take the plunge. This would require dedicated regular savings and beware, sacrifices will have to be made. You will have to try and save as much as possible which would mean spending less on your life style expenses, and trying to live a modest life.

• List down all your goals-Just because you are going to retire early doesn’t mean you wouldn’t want to live a full life and realize you goals which could include travelling, sending kids overseas for higher education, buying your dream home etc. Yes you can achieve these goals and retire early too, but you will need a good plan which will take the cost of funding of these goals into account and adjust it against inflation.

• Know your expenses-Most people especially the ones who live in a metro don’t know how much they spend on a monthly basis. Knowing your expenses is important for two reasons one it will help you know how big your retirement corpus needs to be and two you might need to cut down some unnecessary expenses to be able to save more. Take your life expectancy into consideration and your expenses till that time to calculate your corpus size.

• Set the SIP for the 1^stweek of the month- For most people the only investments that happen are either a minimum SIP started some time back or whatever is saved at the end of the month. This way you will never be able to retire, forget retiring early. Your savings and investments have to be planned and in line with the future goals that you have. So invest before you pay your bills. This is also what Robert Kiyosaki the author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” believes is the secret to getting rich.

• Ensure it’s not a one sided love story– Giving up a good lifestyle and a free hand on spending can take its toll. It can be very frustrating at times, that’s why its very important that your spouse supports this choice a 100% else you might find your self quite often at the receiving end which trust me is neither pleasant nor encouraging. From time to time you might need to remind yourself of your end goal and it should bring you back on track when you start to stray away. I would highly recommend not giving up on things that you love and keep aside some money for some indulgence every now and then if not regularly. Remember Jack Ma will retire at 55, so you will have to give yourself a considerable amount of time to prepare for the big shift.

• Secure your self and you family-We can not stress enough on the importance of a sufficiently large personal life and health insurance. Its better to take one now while you are still young, this way the premiums will also be lower.

Albeit retiring early and getting away from the rat race and the pressures of the world, spending your days relaxing in a quaint house on the hills or by the side of a brook sounds so inviting, it can get boring and mundane after a while. Having spent so many years crossing one hurdle after the other throughout your life, doing nothing after a while doesn’t feel so enticing; so plan for a small business or some activity that would keep you busy in your free time or else you might find yourself missing and craving what you have left behind.

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How do you know if it is time to make a WILL or re-look at it?

Talking and thinking about your own death is never pleasant. Given an option we all would like to live up to the age of 100, see our children get married, watch our grand children and great grand children grow. In India, there is a belief that if you die after seeing your great grandchild then you get a direct passage to heaven, a sure shot ticket to paradise. In a country like India with such a belief system it was difficult to introduce the concept of Life Insurance. With education and awareness Indians have come to accept the importance of insurance and talking about death is no longer a taboo.

There is, however, one area of life and death where still a lot more education  and acceptance is required and that is Will preparation.

Will the mighty estate planning tool

A Will is a legal document that states your last wishes regarding the distribution of your assets. You can specify in the Will who your beneficiary will be and how each of them would receive a part of your estate.

The beneficiary is a person or persons who could be your legal heir like your wife, children, mother or simply your friend, a loyal employee, a Trust or even a charity.

In the absence of a Will, your assets will get distributed as per the succession law of your religion. Some of the common succession laws in India are the Hindu Succession Law, Shariah law and Indian Succession Act of 1925 for the Christians, Jews and Parsis.

The Hindu succession law governs the Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists. Under this inheritance law the mother, wife and children are Class 1 heirs and have an equal right to a deceased man’s assets who dies intestate (without a Will). The father and siblings are considered Class II heirs and become a beneficiary only in the absence of a Class I heir.

Under the Sharia law of inheritance, a testator can choose to whom he or she can bequeath 1/3^rd of their entire estate and the rest is distributed as per the Shariah Law.

In some cases the distribution of assets is governed by the law of the state. In case you are a resident of Goa, then under the Goa Family law all Goans irrespective of their religion, ethnicity or linguistic affiliation are governed by the Portuguese Civil Code.

How do you know if it is the right time to prepare your Will?

People understand the importance of buying life, medical and home insurance to protect their families but few prepare a Will for the same reasons. A life insurance could provide financial support to your family but in case of a dispute, your loved ones could be left without a roof over their head and claims from other legal heirs could delay the access to your insurance money and bank accounts.

For many, the idea of preparing their Will is triggered by an event. The event could be a premature death of a close family member, friend or a neighbour. In some cases, the person has witnessed the bitter legal battle between heirs. Some triggers come in the form of diagnosis of a terminal illness, accident or poor health. The idea of eminent death in most cases provides the much needed push for individuals to start considering and working towards preparing their own Will.

Where do you start?

A Will has to be well thought through. When prepared on an impulse without much consideration, a Will could have loop holes and some long forgotten assets could be missed out. When writing a Will, the testator should consider all legal aspects and state his wishes clearly to avoid it being contested or considered invalid.

A good way to start would be by listing down all your assets be it physical like your house, land, art collection, jewellery, or intangible assets like your trademark, patents or even goodwill. You could also take the help of your financial planner to ensure all the future financial goals of your loved ones also stay intact through the Will. Since it could take some time to get the Will authenticated, it is prudent to make provisions for your spouse and young children to receive instant access to some money in the interim. Again your financial planner will be able to strategize such a contingency plan.

The creditors of the deceased also have a legal claim over his estate. Ensure your Will has provisions for the same to avoid lengthy probate procedures which could delay the transfer of financial assets to your dependents. Also clear specify the distribution of assets among beneficiaries to avoid future conflicts.

For individuals with minor children, appointing a guardian who will be responsible for your young child through the Letter of Guardianship would be a good idea. As per the law, in the absence of a testamentary guardian (the one appointed by parents legally) the child can become the ward of the state and end up in an orphanage until the court decides on the guardianship. This will protect your children in case both the parents pass away.

Some individuals who could be terminally ill or suffering from a condition that could leave them incapacitated in the future, creating a Springing Power of Attorney could give their family access to financial assets to pay for various expenses. In the absence of a POA, even your spouse might not be able to access of your money.

When to re-look at your old Will?

These are some young and old individuals who would have already prepared their Will. Just as with your financial plan which you review on a regular basis, you should review your Will from time to time to keep up with the changes in your life. Here are a few scenarios under which you should re-look at your old Will:

• Major life event like birth or death in a family.
• If you have bought or sold a property.
• If you have taken on a debt or you are a guarantor to someone else’s debts.
• If you have minor children and have not named a guardian in your old Will.
• If you wish to create a Trust that comes into action on the event of your death.
• An unborn child can also be named as a beneficiary.
• Separation from a spouse might want you to change your Will
• If you are recently diagnosed with or have contracted a incurable disease then you might want to consider a living will that considers your life and death wishes as legal.
• In case of an inter-religion marriage the succession law of your spouse upon their death would decide how your assets passed on to them reach your other heirs including children.

You could also consider creating an Education Trust, Minor Beneficiary Trust to meet your child’s educational and future needs. If you are responsible for a family member with special needs then you could provide for them through a Special Needs Trust or pass on your inheritance directly to your grandchildren by skipping a generation through a Dynasty Trust.

As we have seen that the Will can be a very powerful tool in the execution of your last wishes and to protect your loved one’s from despair and legal battles, we shouldn’t delay in preparing one since life is

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RISING OIL PRICES – HOW DOES IT AFFECT YOUR PORTFOLIO

Oil has always had a major influence on India. Whether it be politics, stock markets or the general state of the economy, oil continues to have it’s say in these matters. And this is so because India is a net crude oil importer to meet it’s ever growing demands, and it is not just about energy requirements.

Oil in the last year has gone up 48.5% (Brent Crude Price in USD), whilst in the last three months alone it is up by 16.9%! This huge surge can and probably has started to show it’s effect across the various aspects of the economy. But as an investor into that economy, we hope to underline the impacts of this event on your portfolio holdings.

EQUITIES

1. Inverse Relation:Data indicates that Nifty and Crude Oil prices have an inverse relationship. Between 2014-2017 whilst oil prices saw a significant drop the equity markets showed significant upwards trends. However the latest data seems to suggest that this inverse relation is currently not being witnessed, at least temporarily, with both the markets undergoing volatility and oil prices sky rocketing. Oil price rises however do impact both debt and stocks and hence need a careful watch.

2. Oil Sector:Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) are directly impacted by oil price movement. While retail prices have been continuously raised for the last few days, the worry remains that the government may ask these companies to absorb further hikes rather than passing them to end consumers for controlling inflation. Such a move could dampen their stock prices in the immediate future. Therefore if your stocks portfolio has high exposure to such stocks its time to review the same.

3. Other Sectors:Besides oil companies, other sectors that do get affected are the Aviation and Consumer Durable sectors. For airlines, jet fuel is the single largest cost. Hence rises in oil prices prove serious strain on their margins. This can also be seen through their Q4 results. Also, a lot of companies such as rubber, paints, lubricants, chemicals and even footwear are heavily dependent on oil derivatives as raw materials for their products. Therefore a higher oil price has an indirect impact on their profit margins.

4. Any positives?:Higher oil prices invariably lead to a slide in the Indian Rupee (which we will discuss below). But a weaker rupee can be a positive for IT and Pharma companies as a lot of their business in exports of services and goods.

FIXED INCOME

1. Widening Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Fiscal Deficit:As India imports most of it’s oil needs, rise in oil prices means more money spent for the same amount of oil. This increases the Fiscal Deficit i.e. our expenditure is more than the revenue. As such the government then has to borrow more to meet this gap. This also puts serious pressure on the gap between total imports and exports and invariably leads to a ballooning CAD, resulting in loss of foreign exchange reserves.

2. Weakening Rupee:As mentioned above, oil affects the CAD of our country which in turn has a direct impact on the currency due to higher Fiscal Deficits, Increased Borrowings and Current Account Deficits.

Year	Rupee Dollar Exchange Rate	% Change	Avg. Brent Crude Oil Price per barrel ($)	% Change
15-06-2008	42.48	–	91	–
15-06-2009	47.75	12.41%	58	-36.26%
15-06-2010	46.45	-2.72%	77	32.76%
15-06-2011	44.7	-3.77%	100	29.87%
15-06-2012	55.51	24.18%	110	10.00%
15-06-2013	59.53	7.24%	110	0.00%
15-06-2014	60.06	0.89%	110	0.00%
15-06-2015	63.6	5.89%	58	-47.27%
15-06-2016	67.5	6.13%	35	-39.66%
15-06-2017	64.62	-4.27%	55	57.14%
15-06-2018	67.45	4.38%	76	38.18%

3. Inflation:Rising oil prices means rising input, freight and transportation costs for companies, which finally means bills and expenses increasing for the end consumers. In other words, strong reasons for rising inflation in the country.

4. Where is the actual Impact?:For fixed income investors currently holding debt mutual funds, the above event has a negative impact on the underlying benchmark I.e. 10 year G Sec Bonds. As such, the yields of current 10 year G Sec bonds goes up, which results in a loss in value of bonds held (both sovereign and corporate). In fact, for any investor who may have recently put money into debt mutual funds may be experiencing a notional principal loss!

While elevated oil prices have certainly bought about uncertainties in both fixed income and equities, as an investor it is crucial to know the fundamental reasons of investing into your current investments, along with a certain understanding of when you would require the monies i.e. your time horizon. Like oil, there are always other factors that have short term impacts on portfolios, but by ensuring your appropriate asset allocation through consistent professional advice, your portfolio will likely navigate such times.

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Benefits from Geographical Allocation

According to Investopedia, “Geographical Diversification” is the practice of diversifying an investment portfolio across different geographic regions so as to reduce the overall risk and improve returns on the portfolio.

As with diversification in general, geographical diversification is based on the premise that financial markets in different parts of the world may not be highly correlated with one another. For example, if the US and European stock markets are declining because their economies are in a recession, an investor may choose to allocate part of his portfolio to emerging economies with higher growth rates such as China, Brazil and India.

There are two major advantages in diversifying one’s investment portfolio based on geography:

• Taking Advantage of Opportunities in other Strong Economies:

A significant benefit to a geographic diversification of assets has to do with the way it allows you to mitigate risk by taking advantage of stable economies elsewhere in the world. It’s no secret that some economies are struggling to recover from the trying economic times of the last few years. Other countries, however, have seen higher growth rates due to a variety of factors. International portfolios have been shown, in general, to outperform domestic ones, this is because when there are so many markets to choose from, it is unlikely that the same country will ever repeatedly achieve the highest level of growth. With improved access to international markets and investment instruments such as mutual funds bringing down the costs, an additional option to further diversify has been to buy in international markets.

(Source: Bloomberg, Kotak MF. As of 31^st Jan, 2018)

The above returns data chart clearly shows that while the Indian Equity Markets have performed significantly in the last year, there were opportunities elsewhere which proved even better. Diversification into such economies can therefore result in better yielding portfolios.

• Balancing out the risks:

While chasing better returns might definitely be one aspect of any investment portfolio, it is also crucial to understand how any strategy helps in mitigating the associated risks that are part of every investment decision. Geographic diversification provides a much needed balance that all investors strive for. If one of your assets is located in a part of the world that is or could be vulnerable, the investments in other geographies could compensate or buffer any unexpected losses. This is because despite the impact of globalisation, geographies and economies can still have limited correlation between them, and over time international markets could perform very differently to domestic markets. Following is a chart that shows how various sectors form part of some regions around the world, in % of total market capitalization:

(Source: credit suisse global investment returns yearbook 2015)

As you may notice, different regions give different weightages to every sector. Thus by accessing these regions, you can in essence, reduce investment risks in individual sectors and therefore your entire portfolio as a whole.

Since the cycles that drive business and investment are experienced at different times in different countries, foreign markets seldom move in perfect tandem with each other. Losses in one market may be offset by gains in another. Geographical diversification significantly reduces the overall level of volatility and exposure to external factors. For an investor, theoretically this would mean that the more diversified your assets, the safer is your money. However it is true that a significant black swan event, such as the financial crisis of 2008, will likely deplete any such benefits, especially in the short term immediately after such an event. What is rather important to keep in perspective is (a) your investment horizon and (b) your risk taking capability to diversify into foreign markets.

 

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Being right is more important than being popular

RBI has been proven right on its past decisions on interest rates, and in line with consensus views post the Budget, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6 percent and 5.75 percent,respectively. The MPC also decided to keep the policy stance as neutral, and indicated that further rate hikes or rate cuts will depend on incoming data. It does seem like a long pause on interest rates is in store. The MPC voted 5-1 in favour of status quo, with one member expressing a preference for a rate hike.

Since these were in line with market expectations, both bond and equity markets had already priced in this scenario, and thus they did not react much to this announcement.

The CPI projections for inflation going forward were higher than projected in the last policy, with inflation expected to continue to be elevated at 5.1%p.a in Q4, and 5.1% -5.6% p.a, in H1 2018, due to pressure from higher commodity prices, oil and possible impacts of MSP hikes and increased customs duties, along with greater pricing power for companies to pass on these costs to end consumers.

Growth for 2017-18 is projected at 6.6% ( lower than 6.7% expected earlier) , and projected for 2018-19  at 7.2 %  overall. This recovery is expected on the back of better bank credit growth, an increase in capacity utilisation, GST stabilisation and bank recapitalisation.

Governor Patel ascribed the recent sharp rise in bond yields to various global and domestic factors; including higher US rates, oil prices, increase in inflation, cyclical pick- up in demand in the economy as well as fiscal slippages from the government.

 

Your Investments

With the RBI referring to a recovery in the economy, it does seem that whilst they will continue to track data closely, strategies that are focused on interest rates staying elevated should be the preferred choice.  Considering that real rates of return (returns from fixed return investments less inflation) continue to be significantly positive, we continue to believe that investing in fixed income is attractive, as equities continue to trade at significant premiums to long term price to earnings ratios in spite of the recent correction.  It may be a good idea to continue to have fixed income exposure through a combination of largely accrual, short to medium term, and hold to maturity strategies. Considering the bank recapitalisation, investors could also consider credit opportunities funds for a small portion of their portfolios. For investors willing to continue to look at interest rates having periods of downward volatility, dynamic bond funds that have the flexibility to move across bond maturities, can be explored for 10% – 15% of the fixed income portfolio.

 

Your Loans

Whilst RBI’s decision to hold rate cuts could indicate status quo on rates, we think that the rapid increase in bond yields and its negative impact on bank balance sheets could create upward pressure on loan rates, with banks possibly raising rates going forward.

Reserve Bank introduced the Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rates (MCLR) system with effect from April 1, 2016. With the introduction of the MCLR system, it was expected that the existing Base Rate loans shall also migrate to MCLR system. It is observed, however, that a large proportion of bank loans continue to be linked to the Base Rate. Since MCLR has proven to be a better tool to transmit interest rates, RBI has decided to harmonize the methodology of determining benchmark rates by linking the Base Rate to the MCLR with effect from April 1, 2018. This is likely to help borrowers who are still on base rate linked loans.  An ombudsman scheme to improve customer grievance handling for loans taken from NBFCs has also been introduced.

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Mr. Pilot – Are you prepared in case of rough weather ?

This 7^th of December is the International Civil Aviation Day and marks the 50^th Anniversary of the signing of the Convention on International Civil Aviation.The purpose of this day, as pilots all over might be well aware of, is to recognize the importance of aviation to the overall development of the world.

And while pilots draw great confidence from being able to manage the process of reaching passengers to their destinations safely and comfortably, a more pressing question can be that are they confident when it comes to management of their finances?

The profession of a pilot demands almost all their time all year round. Hence they are left with limited personal time which they wish to live to the fullest. And like most busy professionals,more often than not money management seems to come at the end of this wish list. Pilots go through meticulous preparation and planning for their flights daily but sometimes are unable to do so for their finances.

While money is not the end, it is definitely a means to achieve certain objectives. Proper planning and structure to a pilot’s personal finances can result in he/she being prepared for all kinds of life events and responsibilities. Events such as:

1. Sudden Illness:The requirement for pilots to be medically fit is of prime importance as they are responsible for the lives of hundreds of passengers daily. Every pilot needs to ensure a good health cover to cover sudden illness and hospitalisation. A pilot may wonder why would he need insurance when he is already covered. But if one actually things about, it might be prudent to have a separate health insurance cover for times when you may not be employed or between jobs or in cases where employer insurance is inadequate.
2. Need for upgradation of Skill Sets:Like all professions, skill updation is a critical requirement that must be met by all pilots on periodic basis. But these do not come at a cheap cost. Ensuring enough provision and funds are kept aside and is available at the time of requirement can go a long way in avoiding last minute stress.
3. Contingency Needs: A major issue plaguing the aviation industry is the availability of opportunities. The last few years have clearly demonstrated that problems are plenty in the Indian aviation sectors. For eg. Airlines have closed down, pay cuts are becoming common, or there have been significant delays in salary payments. Such events can have huge financial implications on pilots and their families. Having contingency funds parked in highly liquid assets can help bring some normalcy in such difficult times.
4. Retirement and Sunset Years:Insufficient planning for your golden years i.e. Retirement can cause stress. In case of pilots, who are among the top earners amongst professionals, this only magnifies the problem. Why so? Pilots more often than not tend to have busy lifestyles with high discretionary expenses. As such they are accustomed to a lifestyle that will only get more and more expensive as years pass This year on year rise in prices is called Inflation and it is an important factor that more often that not, is grossly underestimated. Furthermore, like any other busy professional, even pilots like to keep themselves occupied during retirement years. The interests or activities that they might pursue would also usually have financial implications. Activities such as investing into various ventures, pursuing hobbies or dream goals, continuing leisure flying by enrolling in the local flying club can be just some of the examples. To be able to fund these without affecting retirement corpus requires careful planning early on.

Take the case of pilot Mr. Sharma. Currently aged 30, the household expenses for him and his family is Rs. 12 lakhs per annum. Even if we assume a general inflation of 8%, the same Rs. 12 lakh will become Rs. 1.75 crores at the age of retirement at 65. ( Rules permit pilots to fly till the age of 65 ). In other words, Mr. Sharma would need to have a big enough corpus at retirement that will provide them atleast Rs 1.75 crores every year that will help them maintain current lifestyles.

Pilots are aware of the importance of planning. Each flight requires hours of pre flight preparation which means going through weather reports, system checks among other items to ensure that the flight goes by without any hitch. Similarly having a strategic plan in place for one’s finances can also help prepare for any “rough weather” that could come along in a pilot’s financial life.

 

 

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How effective Treasury Management can ensure stability for HR Consultancy firms

As the owner and /or CEO of your HR Consultancy firm, cash flow management is a constant topic of discussions with the finance and accounts team.

What do with the excess cash in hand? Where should it be deployed so that it works a little bit more and grows whilst being highly liquid and safe? How does one ensure that enough reserves are maintained to fund working capital expenses during the low business cycles?

What makes cashflow management critical is that it helps the firm maintain the business flow and also balance better returns for idle money. This in turn goes a long way in ensuring operational functioning and continuity. The question is how is this achieved?

First things first, when you talk about treasury management, you are indirectly referring to constant flow of money in very short time periods. And as most boutique/SME’s face volatile business turnovers, money can be required on priority basis at any point. Hence the priority in Treasury Management primarily lies in ensuring liquidity and safety of capital invested rather than high returns.

Secondly, while significant growth in short term investments should not be expected; it should not necessarily be considered that there are no better options other than the company current account. While Fixed Deposits and Recurring Deposits have been traditional avenues for company owners to park extra monies, they remain inefficient from a taxation perspective. Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) is a definite thorn as tax incidence is occurring even though there are no capital gains received in hand.  Furthermore, falling interest rate scenarios are making them an even less attractive option.

An alternative that should be considered is liquid/ultra short Term/ short term debt mutual funds. Two aspects they score over traditional avenues is (A) they usually do not have any exit penalties  as compared to bank FDs and (B) they are more tax efficient due to tax deferment, as tax incidence only occurs at the time of realised capital gains at the hands of the investor, and they are eligible for indexation benefits as gains from any debt mutual fund investment held for 3 years or longer are taxed at 20% after indexation, thereby improving post tax returns.

In addition, often companies decide to park certain monies with a longer term view. This could be to prepare for possible expansion/acquisition as envisaged in their business plans. But as the requirement of funds is not in the immediate future, short term investment options might not work out in the best interest. Hence separate planning should be considered for such investment purposes.

Last but not least, understanding past company cashflows and extrapolating the data to approximate future cashflows is essential to determine the kind of investment strategy would be ideal. This analysis, while including business growth projections, should also include current liability repayments and expected abnormal gains in the future.

While managing cashflows will indeed be a constant objective, through efficient planning and proper advisory it need not become a source of constant headaches.

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HR Consultants – can you plan your own finances?

Consultancy is the new age choice of profession. And being a consultant is right there amongst the top dream jobs!

One of the most upcoming fields in this professional niche is in the sector of Human Resources. Consultants in this sphere are referred to as Human Resource Business Partners.

A Human Resource Business Partner goes beyond the regular functions of the organization’s HR team. As such, HR Business Partners generally tend to be very busy as they handle important head hunting and hiring mandates. With bigger mandates and responsibilities comes a much nicer pay package alas with no time to look at personal finances!

But like all professionals, Personal Financial Planning should infact be at the top of the priority list. Why you ask? Let’s delve into the reasons.

Time Restraint: Like all consultants are occupied 24/7, a HR Business Partner is always vying for personal time. And when they do find some, the last thing on their mind is personal financial matters. In the catch up for personal things to get done, personal finances are a low priority. Yet should it not be the complete opposite of this? The importance of financial planning is not just related to finding out how much to invest and where. Financial planning and giving a structure to overall finances is aimed to attain peace in the thought that despite all other commitments, you are working towards insuring that financially your dreams and aspirations will be taken care of. And that is a great source of calm for a person constantly on the move.

Contract based Income: As a consultant, you are a contractual worker in essence. In other words, you are in receipt of the handsome income only as long as you manage to keep the contracts alive. Shouldn’t simple logic dictate your actions that this hard earned should be channelized for situations when no contract is available? Or in layman’s terms, creating a Contingency Fund for those truly lull periods in the industry. Wouldn’t you want to make this hard earned money work as hard as you so that your dreams of an early retirement or that fancy foreign holiday come true?

Insurance: While you may have already thought of the regular health and life insurance policies, what is worth considering are additional risk covers in terms of Personal Accident and Critical Illness Policies. These provide features which help augment income in case you cannot report in to work due to major accidents. In addition insurance that is worth considering for senior HR Business partners or top executives of HR Consulting firms is the Keyman Insurance Policies. (More on all these in the subsequent posts.)

What is it that you truly fancy doing with your hard earned monies that you worked so relentlessly for? Would it not be nice to know that your efforts can be enough to fulfil your life dreams? Most likely your answer would be a resounding YES! So then, what is stopping you? Mere inertia? An inherent fear of doing something wrong that can’t be taken back? Lack of knowledge on how to go forward? The questions are many.

And yet, the solution might be as simple as the professional choice that you have made for yourself. Why not consult an expert consultant from the financial advisory field? It is after all why you are hired right? So why the hesistance in doing the same thing for your personal benefit.

As fellow consultants and advisors we believe, like you, that specialization leads to credibility and expertise. And like consultants, we understand that trust is only gained through repeatedly providing sound and quality advice. Being credible and trustworthy is essential, more so in matters of personal finance.

Having a word with a Financial Advisor to make certain your hard earned wealth is doing the right thing may be a good idea and most certainly worth your coveted personal time.

Till then…continue the good job of quality consulting!

 

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