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Posts Tagged ‘#RiskAppetite’

vector infographic car road timeline with pointers

 

As the media and dailies flash all the news and noise around the downgrade of debt securities of some of the IL&FS group companies and the ‘so called blood bath’ on the dalal street triggered by the sale of certain DHFL bonds, the average investor is obviously concerned about their investments. Spooked by these recent events and the volatility of both equity and debt markets investors are now wondering whether to continue their SIPs in mutual funds, buy stocks or just exit and hold cash? So what should you do?

There is no one size fits all solution to this problem. The answer lies in your long and short term objectives and whether you have a detailed drawn out financial plan. Situations like these (market volatility and uncertainty) truly highlight the need of a good weapon – your financial plan- your investment road map. When investors invest without a goal and financial plan in sight they do not know how much to invest, how long they should continue their investments and how close they are to their goals; thus how much volatility their portfolio can withstand.

 

Should you turn conservative?

Let’s assume that you have been been saving for the last 8 years for your child’s higher education and you have about 3 years left until you need the money. Now irrespective of whether the market is volatile or not, it is imperative that you re-balance your portfolio by moving your money in to conservative debt investments. This strategy should anyways have been a part of the financial plan to protect the corpus from short term market fluctuations and should be used only when you start approaching your goal.

If applied sooner than needed then you may run into the risk of falling short of the target amount. Also remember, getting closer to your goal is not the time to get speculative and increase your aggressive equity exposure.

 

How to deal with the amygdala hijack (the emotions and the panic)?

Turning conservative in tough market conditions is easy, staying focused on your goals and continuing your investments as you see the market giants come crashing down requires a lot of courage, focus and some science, data and rationale. Investors are believed to be irrational when it comes to dealing with money. When the markets are rallying investors want to be a part of it and they willingly invest. However as soon as they experience turbulence they drop their investments like hot potatoes in fact hurting their investments and networth. Market fluctuations affects a part of your brain called amygdala which induces fear. The fear leads to panic and the sell off frenzy begins.

At this point you have to go back to your financial plan and remind yourself what your goals are and follow your financial plan to avoid any knee jerk reaction. If your next milestone is 8-10 years away then the current volatility does not need you to act and also your portfolio can withstand this short term fluctuations.

 

How following your financial plan helps?

Staying on track with your financial plan and road map pays off in more than one way. Once you know your milestones and risk appetite through your plan:

  • You avoid taking unnecessary exits thereby saving unnecessary capital gain tax or any exit loads that may be applicable that could further reduce your profits.Money saved is money earned.
  • You stay invested (example SIPs) through a down cycle of the market , which actually helps you get a better value for your money invested. This over the long term can improve your portfolio returns and catapult corpus generation.
  • You may even get opportunities to start newer investments in good quality companies basis your risk profile and time horizon

An example to detail this : Sep 2008 is a period set in time; this is when the infamous Lehman brother crisis shook the global financial markets and sent the indices in India and across the world in a massive tailspin. It was a difficult time for investors, however the ones who persevered and continued their Sips reaped the benefits later.

Lets assume you had a plan and understood the corpus that you needed say in 2018 and started a simple SIP in a mutual fund. The chart below shows the trajectory of such an SIP of Rs 10,000 started in Oct 2008 in 3 different categories of funds.

SIP

SIP amount Total Amount invested in 10 yrs Current Value (Rs.) CAGR
Value Fund 10,000 12 lakhs 34.18 lakhs 18.26%
Multi Cap Fund 10,000 12 lakhs 28.80 lakhs 15.53%
Large Cap Fund 10,000 12 lakhs 28.43 lakhs 15.33%
Nifty 100 10,000 12 lakhs 25.98 lakhs 13.86%

 

Remember, in volatile times, people lose more money by fearing and holding back their investments and possibly denying themselves good opportunities that may present themselves in the form of a market downturn.

Markets will fluctuate and will be volatile, that is their inherent quality. Navigating these carefully is necessary for investors. A sound financial plan and the guidance of an independent and unbiased financial planner would help. In short, you need to stay on track and to follow your financial plan. This financial plan will be your guide and navigator during volatile markets.

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Ulips

 

Unlike a pure insurance policy, a Unit Linked Insurance Plan (ULIP) is a product designed to give investors the benefits of both insurance and investment under a single integrated plan. ULIPs are insurance + investment plans suited for investors with long investment horizons. They work well with investors who may not otherwise keep the discipline of investing as they usually come with long lock ins and high exit costs.

The tempting benefit ULIPs offer is the administrative convenience of not needing to execute the two legs of transactions i.e. insurance and investments separately.

From our experience with investors, we understand that there’s a good chance you already own a Unit Linked insurance plan (ULIP) that either your parents bought for you, or you landed up buying one in the hurry scurry of tax related investments, only to realize later that one should not be mixing insurance and investments.

In the case that you may have purchased a ULIP or you may be contemplating to buy one, it is critical to know a few important items related to them so that you are more aware of what you have or might get yourself into.

 

1. Understand the purpose for purchasing the ULIP – tax planning cannot be the sole motive

While tax planning is clearly on the agenda, you should also assess the objective for which you want to purchase an insurance policy. Is the policy being bought for long term wealth creation, retirement planning or building a corpus for your child’s future? A decision that is prompted solely by the need to save taxes often results in the purchase of a wrong or an unsuitable product.

 

2. Check the charges carefully

All Ulips come with a host of charges. Understanding each of them is crucial to understanding if the product is suitable or not. Such charges include:

  • Premium Allocation Charges: As the name suggests, these fees are to cover expenses incurred by the company to allocate funds, do the underwriting, medical expenses, etc.Your agents commission is also covered under this head.
  • Policy Administrative Charges: These are the charges that are deducted on a timely basis to recover the expenses incurred to maintain the policies under the fund.
  • Surrender Charges: Similar to the exit loadin a mutual fund, these are the charges applicable when encashing a part or the full investment in a plan. As we know that in most of the Mutual Funds, exit load is at about one percent. In ULIPs, surrender charges could vary from a few percentage points to very exhorbitant amounts, basically to deter investors from exiting the plan in a short horizon.
  • Mortality Charges: These are the fees that are deducted on a monthly basis to cover the costs borne by the insurerfor providing a life cover to the policy holder. Depending on the age and the sum insured, these charges are deducted for life cover.
  • Fund Management Charges: The allocation of investment in debt and equity requires the insurer to bear the costs of managing the fund.These are charged as fund management charges.
  • Fund Switching Charges: As the name suggests, switching from one fund to another requires the insuredto pay an amount for covering the expenses borne by the company for making the switch.

 

3. Understand the flexibility to Switch

An investor’s need for liquidity, time horizon, and risk appetite will determine the initial allocation but these change over time. ULIPs offer the flexibility of switching between the funds based on changes in market cycles and changes in investor preferences. The number of free switches during a policy year, the cost of switches and the ease of switching are factors that are important evaluation points when choosing a ULIP.

 

4. Analyse and estimatperformance

With the complexity of the ULIP structure plus the huge list of charges and expenses that comes with it, it is difficult to approximate the kind of performance the product may have given during its existence. Always insist with the insurance agent/advisor to show illustrations and data demonstrating how the fund would has performed and is likely perform considering markets ups and downs. More often that not, data would help you decide better on the decision to invest or not.

 

Probably the only benefit, though largely accidental, of an ULIP is that the investor’s money is locked in due to the structure of a ULIP, forcing him to think long term. However, it is needless to say that other options must also be evaluated in comparison to ULIPs before making a choice to invest in them. The most common strategy might be a combination of Pure Term Life insurance policies along with separate investments in Mutual Funds. But like every investment decision, the first step to take is to determine the investment horizon and risk appetite and not get swayed by fancy words or past performance.

 

 

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indian-stock-market-news-update-as-on-april-02-2014

India is currently among the most watched Emerging Market nations. To top that, the Indian Equity Markets have witnessed unprecedented growth in the recent months. The YTD returns for Sensex alone has been 26% (data from BSE India). The euphoria and high confidence on the Indian Equities has continued to remain, especially from the institutional investors both foreign and domestic.

This is also leading to make many individual investors question whether they should invest in equities or sit on the sidelines. While individual risk appetite and time horizon would be some of the basic factors to understand before investing, there are many other fundamental factors to track. While the debate has been raging on as to which indicators should be looked at or ignored to make sense of the valuations of the Indian equity markets, the following factors can help bring some sense of clarity to the overall picture. Factors such as:

Current Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E Numbers): One of the most traditional tools used globally at gauging the valuations of an equity market of a country. In the last one year alone (based on data from Oct 16 to Oct 17), the P/E Ratio for S&P BSE Sensex has averaged close to 22 times in comparison to its historical average of approximately 17 on a trailing basis. For the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap of the same period, the P/E valuations are at an average of 33.8 and 81.13 times.

Corporate Earnings: P/E Ratios are directly linked to the corporate earnings of the country. As per Kotak Institutional Equities Estimates, the Expected Earnings for companies representing the Nifty 50 Index are approximately 2% in FY 2018. A variety of reasons are attributed to these low earnings expectations, most famously discussed are the implementations and effects of Demonetization and Goods and Service Tax (GST).

Crude Oil Prices: Nearly 80% of India’s energy needs are import dependent. A direct consequence of this is the risk to the country’s inflation rate if the prices of crude oil are to rise. A rise in oil prices results in lower cashflows/profits for companies and higher prices for consumers. Brent crude oil prices are currently firming up at prices upwards of 60$ per barrel. This is a definite concern from an Indian economy perspective.

Exchange Rates: The Rupee is currently considered overvalued basis its 10 year average (Source: Kotak Research). This has a dual impact on the economy i.e. (A) it increases attractiveness of imported products, resulting in increased competition for domestic companies and lower profits; (B) it decreases the value of exported products and therefore hurts the margins of export based industries such as the IT sector. Both have resulted in muted growth prospects for these respective industries.

Bond Yields: In an growing economy like India, both equities and bonds compete for capital. In a equity bull rally, money is taken out from bond markets and pumped into equities, forgoing risk to capital for riskier investments. Currently bond yields are inching up to the mid 2017 high of 6.987% yield for the 10yr G-Sec. However there has only been net inflows into fixed income. Foreign Portfolio Investments into Government Securities have already reached 83.94% of their allotted limit (data dated as per 6th Nov NSDL)

Inflation Rate: Inflation brings about it own risks to the stock markets. In the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the RBI revised the inflation projections for the rest of FY 2018 upwards to 4% – 4.5%. This may indicate a stop to future rate cuts, freezing any possibilities of reduction in lending rates. Medium term consequences for companies could possibly mean dearer than expected debt to  service, resulting in subdued profits and revenue.

Role of FIIs: The way that Foreign Institutional Investors park monies in the market can give an indication to the current picture of that market. While FIIs were very bullish on Indian Equities for most part of the calendar year, starting June they slowly but surely tapered inflows in equity, finally resulting in net outflows in the month of September and October. (Source: moneycontrol)

Global Scenario: On a global scale, economies are starting to look up, with further growth expected. According to IMF Economic Outlook, average expected GDP growth for FY 2017 is 2.5%. Globally, equity markets have participated in this growth including India. What probably may need to be put in perspective is that the rally in Indian Equities may be partly due to the global rallies taking place. Therefore the Indian equities are associated with risks in terms of foreign external factors like outbreak of war in the Korean Peninsula. Such events are likely to have negative impacts on the domestic markets.

Keeping in mind the above mentioned factors, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors has a definite view that current equity markets are over valued and investors should exercise caution. The not so positive indicators from these mentioned factors should mean a significant correction cannot be discounted, keeping us wary of diving too much into equities without first educating investors of the potential risks in the short to medium term horizon.

 

 

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